Turkish full rank in the European Union became a quandary and a zero amount game for all parties, the obstructions that obstruct the achievement of this scenario are complicated and intertwined to an extent that makes alternate scenarios more attractive, In this portion of the thesis four scenarios will be analyzed utilizing SWOT analysis ( Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats ) , from Turkish point of position and harmonizing to the current indexs of Turkish functionary attitudes, A individual scenario will be adopted as the most Prospected to go on on the short term.
Before exemplifying these scenarios, some dimensions of these dealingss should be born in head: Relationss between EU states and Turkey are strategically indispensable for both parties and ca n’t be substituted because of the Geographic propinquity and the Historical bonds, precedence of these dealingss can alter but the ties remain a political fact because of strategic ties that can be traced back to the terminal of the First World War.
Despite the het argument about whether to allow Turkey full Membership or a sort of privileged partnership in the European Union, Many applicable scenarios are possible and there is no individual scenario can be considered inevitable because of the dynamism of international and regional alterations, All expectancies prospected scenarios can be defied because of the lawless nature of interactions between concerned parties and the volatile alterations in international system because The current equilibrium in the European continent is delicate and is n’t log-lasting ; renascent Russia, menaces to energy security, instability in cardinal Asia, the lifting menace of Conventional and WMD terrorist act stemming from the in-between East Region and the challenges to European Mediterranean policies may take to the application of an unexpected scenario, To sum up scenario edifice procedure is for analytical intents and ca n’t make high preciseness and cogency criterions due to causes mentioned earlier.
Consequently, There are four different scenarios refering rank dialogues between EU and Turkey: The first scenario includes alteration in Turkish functionary attitude and the credence of privileged rank as a grant to the EU, The 2nd scenario is recommencing the frozen accession dialogues to get full rank harmonizing to the EU functionary processs, the Third scenario is making a different via media between Turkey and EU with more privileges granted to Turkey and the last scenario is suspending rank dialogues and organizing a parallel regional Middle eastern or cardinal Asiatic integrating alternatively of EU rank.
1- Turkish blessing on privileged partnership:
Due to the importance of keeping a solid concerted dealingss with European Union, Turkish Government might accept the proposal of privileged partnership, This process may be accompanied an European pledge to allow Turkey full rank and sing privileged partnership a transitional period to relieve the uncertainties and sceptics of European Ultra-Rightist parties.
This scenario is expected to hold advocate in the Turkish political sphere particularly among patriots who wholly refuse EU full rank because of what they consider a menace to Turkish national individuality and unfair economic political and security duties that will be imposed on Turkey, On the other manus European populace sentiment wo n’t reject privileged partnership because it does n’t include any determination devising privileges granted to Turkish representatives in the EU, In add-on to the possibility of enforcing limitation on the economic cooperation and Turkish engagement in EU personal businesss, For them it is a Win – Win Game for both spouses: It conveying Turkey near plenty to EU but to accomplish Common involvements but non excessively close to endanger Europeans culturally, politically or demographically.
The advantages of this scenario include:
Achieving economic prosperity for Turkey because of reenforcing economic cooperation with the EU, Turkish goods and services will hold privileges of The Most Favored Nation Principle when accessioning the European market in add-on to other economic inducements that EU will allow Meleagris gallopavo to actuate Turkish Government Approval, As a province that adopt Free Market economic system and see pulling FDI a national precedence, This is regarded an appealing trade difficult to be rejected.
On the political degree: being closer to the EU and take parting in execution The EU ‘s Common Foreign and Security Policy is Fundamentally critical to Turkish regional position as a polar province, Having an European strategic backup is rather constructive plus that Turkey must get to keep its strategic function in the Middle East, cardinal Asia and the Mediterranean and to incorporate regional menaces of clangs with renascent Russia or extremist Iran in the Caspian see through ordaining European Alliance.
The new Global menace that menace both European provinces and Turkey ca n’t be combated without a steadfast cooperation with Europe, The frequent terrorist of PKK in the Turkish district, illegal Migration menaces, menaces to Nuclear Balance in the Middle East from Iran altered the Importance organizing a Strategic confederation with the EU to an indispensable Being involvement that undermines all other differences about the degree of rank.
On contrary this scenario, Despite all mentioned advantages have a batch of defects that exceed its advantages:
Further Economic Integration with EU will ensue in a quandary refering the needed mutual intervention of EU goods and services that will be permitted to entree Turkish market without any trade or tariff barriers of any sort, Turkish corporations will non be able to vie with the European Multinational Corporation and, the reverberations will be unjust and unbalanced economic competition that Turkey ca n’t afford on the short term.
Turkey will hold multiple defence and Foreign policy duties towards the EU without holding any echt representation in the chief Institutions of the European Union, This is more like a contract of adhesion with European States have all governments and advantages and Turkey bears all duties and loads without even holding the right to take part in Decision doing procedure.
Turkey already has economic and political privileged intervention as a spouse of the EU through the longest accession dialogue procedure in the History of any regional integrative entity in the whole universe, Many experts consider privileged partnership another signifier of Mediterranean Partnership that EU initiated with many in-between eastern provinces, For all these grounds privileged partnership is n’t possible scenario or even an appropriate option to accomplish Turkish involvements of developing a strategic comprehensive confederation or integrating within the historically Most of import part in its foreign policy construction.
2- Recommencing Full Membership Negotiations:
The 2nd scenario entails resuscitating frozen accession dialogues between Turkey and EU, This scenario assumes that Turkey will restart legal, economic and political reforms harmonizing to EU accession standards to be obtain full rank privileges, In add-on to the complexness of run intoing rank demands, This scenario has some obvious disadvantages:
it besides involves Turkish full credence of negociating all controversial issues such as dealingss with Cyprus, Armenia and negociating a colony with Kurds that may take to allowing them self finding, following attitudes approved by the bulk of European states may be indispensable to avoid hindrances taking to dialogue prostration.
This scenario besides requires Turkish Government to accept engagement in a long endurance contest negociating procedure that may last for a decennary at least without any warranted consequences, Negotiations may stop without allowing Turkey full rank.
It may besides fall in at any phase which leads to uncertainness and rough changeless public unfavorable judgment to the Turkish Government.
Despite all mentioned disadvantage this scenario has many privileges:
Full rank dialogues have a clear finish and will take to full integrating of Turkey in the EU which means accordingly achieving all rank privileges such as full engagement in determination devising in all European Institutions and accomplishing a convenient balance between duties and governments of Turkey as a full member.
Deriving the European economic backup as a full member, Trade Discriminatory policies against Turkish Products will be lifted, European FDI flow will be reinforced and warranted by the EU, Turkish fiscal establishment will derive more International credibleness, Finally this will take Meleagris gallopavo to accomplish economic prosperity that will reenforce public support for Turkish authorities.
Internally, Achieving full rank will beef up the legitimacy of the Turkish authorities, consolidating the Turkish democracy against any possible public violences or Military putsch d’etat because of AKP moderate Islamic associations, Public support will do political reform procedure initiated by AKP functionaries a public demand withstanding any resistance of patriots or the military Institution.
As mentioned above, Bing a full spouse in the European integrating will beef up Turkish regional function and will enable Turkey to meet regional challenges to its function, besides it will beef up its regional credibleness as a cardinal province in multiple geographically interconnected parts.
3- Reaching a Different Compromise:
The Third scenario entails making a different partial via media alternatively of full rank and privileged partnership, Such as organizing a Custom Union with extra European grants granted to Turkey or organizing a military confederation outside The North Atlantic Treaty Organization with exceeding Decision doing Participation of Turkey in antecedently determined issues such as engaging war on a common enemy or proliferating military personnels in parts outside the European continent.
This scenario has many potencies that makes it possible
it is a flexible colony that can be modified by adding more privileges to convert Turkish authorities of O.K.ing this expression, Economic and political privileges can be combined to derive Turkish consent.
It achieves the ends of both parties: Turkey will hold about all rank privileges without being a full member and EU will profit strategically from developing close ties without economic, political or demographic menaces.
This attack can be considered Mutually reenforcing and an obvious illustration of a win-win game, this might press the Turkish authorities to accept it because the political cost of this via media is really low compared to favor partnership.Turkish functionaries can still claim that this expression is the most possible grant from European states and it is added value transcends its cost, an statement that will increase the popularity of AKP party and lead to farther marginalisation of its resistance.
On the other manus this attack has its ain defects:
Turkey wo n’t achieve full rank and still it will be an foreigner compared to other European provinces, Abolition of economic discriminatory processs may n’t be accompanied by abolishment of political favoritism against Turkey as a culturally different state.
Decision doing privileges granted to Turkey as a grant ca n’t be -by any average – equal to full rank determination doing powers, Turkish engagement will be limited and functionally uneffective because Turkey wo n’t be able to explicate lasting vote axis with other European provinces to back up determinations related to its national involvements.
Disputes between Turkey and European states about the fortunes and the processs of Turkish engagement in determination devising is expected to do the conditions of engagement obscure and controversial, Furthermore it may take to weakening the close ties between the two spouses.
4- Initiating an Alternate Integration:
This scenario can be considered the other extreme of the continuum, It entails Turkish suspension of rank dialogues and suggesting a program for organizing a parallel regional Middle eastern or cardinal Asiatic integrating alternatively of EU rank.Turkey already is reorienting its foreign policy to develop close ties with Middle Eastern and Central Asiatic states to accomplish balance in its regional associations and antagonistic regional menaces, This scenario can be good for Turkey because of the Following grounds:
It can be considered a manoeuvre to acquire more grant from European states that may finally ensue in Turkish full rank in the EU, Developing an confederation outside European continent will be a resurgence of Non-Alignment policy adopted by developing provinces during the cold war that granted them higher grade of manoeuvrability in their relation with both eastern and western axis, Changes in the international system and the outgrowth of lifting powers such as China, India and Russia can take this scheme to accomplish success and imperativeness EU to allow Turkey full rank
Strengthening Turkish polar function in the international system, suspension of EU accession negotiations will reenforce Turkish regional position and the initiated regional integrating will be an added value to its international position.
Turkey will hold comparative advantages economically and politically in any freshly formed regional integrating between developing provinces, Its industrial base, economic and political stableness will enable it to claim leading in Middle Eastern or Central integrating.
This scenario besides has grave reverberations:
Turkish active engagement in the Middle Eastern personal businesss will take to farther intercession in instable part with negative effects of proliferation of instability in Turkish district, Threats stemming from this part such as Terrorism, illegal in-migration, Drug trafficking and WMD proliferation will jeopardize Turkish regional security
Turkish lifting regional position will non be treated with generousness from ordinary regional powers such as Russia in cardinal Asia, regional competition may turn into weaponries race or regional military confrontation, proxy wars are besides possible scenario: Soviet union may force Iran to come in a limited tactical war against Turkey to incorporate its regional influence in the Caspian Sea part.
The changeless interventionist foreign policy in multiple parts ca n’t be afforded by Turkey as a developing province with limited economic capablenesss, Spending more resources to carry through Foreign policy duty is n’t a feasible option for Turkish Government.
European Countries will see Turkey a regional menace alternatively of being strategic Alliess, More economic and political limitations may be imposed as an initial result of this foreign policy reorientation, Tensions and clangs within the European continent will increase to the criterions of cold war which will finally eliminate regional stableness
What is the most prospected scenario? this inquiry remains combative without a clear cut precise reply, the advantages and disadvantages of all scenarios seems to be equal and the intertwined nature of these scenarios adds more analytical troubles, But Turkey can doubt more than a individual scenario to manage the regional complexnesss: it is prospected that Turkey will restart complicated full rank dialogues while doing fringy foreign policy reorientation to steer European attitudes and exert force per unit area on United States to do European spouses speed up Turkish EU accession procedure. Consequently the Neo-ottoman foreign policy orientation can be considered a Turkish manoeuvre non a full changeless reorientation of Turkish Foreign policy off from accessing European Integration.