A considerable sum of research has been carried-out over the past decennary sing the effects of dollarization on an economic system. The literature has included, but non limited the states of Poland, Zimbabwe, and El Salvador. While lone clip will state if dollarization will go on to prolong positive long-run impacts, the short-run has provided considerable grounds of a successful pecuniary integrating.
This research paper analyzed the dollarization of Ecuador in the twelvemonth 2000. Variables include rising prices every bit good as touristry rates and visitants geting over clip based on a retroactive holiday bundle monetary value.
A correlational arrested development determined that neither dollarization nor rising prices play a function in the Ecuadorian touristry industry. This finding could hold policy deductions sing local statute law, the calling pick of touristry among pupils, and financial projection.
Cardinal Wordss: Tourism, Ecuador, Currency, US Dollar, Economy, Inflation, dollarization, economic sciences.
Over the past 12 old ages, many developing states have looked to the construct of dollarization to assist stabilise their fiscal systems. Dollarization, the procedure of officially altering or nail downing a state ‘s currency to the US dollar, began in the twelvemonth 2000 when Ecuador became the first crowned head province to alter its currency to a foreign unit ( Lucas, 2009 ) . Soon after Ecuador ‘s acceptance, other states such as El Salvador, Panama and Liberia adopted the US dollar as the official currency. While dollarization has helped to halt rising prices and stabilise economic systems in the short-run, important long-run effects can function to contradict out the positive, short-termed effects.
The alteration to dollarization has impacted many facets of Ecuador ‘s economic system, specifically the one-year $ 1.214 billion touristry industry ( UNWTO, 2011 ) .
The intent of this paper is to find the extent and significance that rising prices and dollarization have had on the Ecuadorian touristry industry between the old ages of 2000-2010. This research is guided by the inquiry, has dollarization, with the inclusion of rising prices, affected touristry tendencies over the past decennary? Further, it is hypothesized that dollarization is the prevailing force and accelerator in prolonging touristry rates in Ecuador, South America.
Additionally, this research seeks to find if dollarization has at the same time served as a positive economic driver for the Ecuadorian economic system, specifically within the touristry industry.
Due to Ecuador ‘s location with a favourable clime and fertile dirt, the economic system has long been based on agribusiness and other merchandises that come of course from the Earth. In 1967, Texaco became the first major company to detect oil in the extremely uninhabited Amazonian part of the state. This find led to an oil roar in the 1970s and oil now makes up one-third of all authorities grosss and 40 per centum of all export net incomes ( Kollffel, 2001 ) . Since the economic system is immensely based on commoditized merchandises that originate in agribusiness, the economic system is extremely susceptible to natural catastrophes and planetary economic jobs set uping trade good monetary values.
Harmonizing to work published by Penaloza ( as cited in Berrios, 2006 ) and informations from the International Monetary Fund ( 2002 ) , and Census Ecuador ( 2010 ) , Ecuador ‘s economic system began to waver in the late ninetiess due to a combination of several factors including the deficiency of trust in emerging markets after Southeast Asiatic economic crisis and crisp beads in planetary oil monetary values combined with the outgrowth of the destructive El Nino conditions form.
“ Exogenous dazes to the Ecuadorian economic system in 1998 triggered a terrible fiscal and currency crisis which to the full developed during 1999. As a effect, trade good monetary values fell well below U.S. degrees in dollar footings and, seemingly, the autumn would hold continued had it non been for dollarization ( p. 9-11 ) . ”
Jamil Mahuad, the president of Ecuador during the currency crisis, announced on January 9, 2000 that the state would go the first autonomous state to follow the United States Dollar ( USD ) as its ain currency. While Mahuad was ousted from power within two hebdomads of doing this proclamation, the new president, Gustavo Noboa, signed a jurisprudence in March 2000 doing the US dollar the official currency of Ecuador. Currently, Ecuador continues to utilize the US dollar ( and some Sucre coins ) as its official currency.
As intended, dollarization appears to hold reduced rising prices and stabilise the economic system in Ecuador. While rising prices grew at an mean one-year rate of 41.4 % from 1992 -2001 ( the 3rd highest rate in all of Latin America and the Caribbean ) it has slowed to a rate of 4.5 % over the last 10 old ages. This compares to an norm of 6.83 % for the remainder of the part. The undermentioned chart ( Figure 1 ) shows one-year rising prices rates in Ecuador for every twelvemonth since 1980 ( IMF, 2010 ) .
Data Beginning: International Monetary Fund, 2010.
When analyzing the factors that consumers consider when taking a foreign tourer location, exchange rates matter more than rising prices except possibly in a few utmost illustrations. Since tourers usually spend a limited sum of clip in a foreign state, it is improbable they will be significantly impacted by rising prices unless the host state is sing hyper-inflation ( Dwyer & A ; Forsyth, 2009 ) or some other local economic crisis. However, during times of rapid rising prices or deflation, the touristry industry has been shown to be one of the first casualties of economic growing.
When tourers seek to reserve hotel suites or box circuits, they are frequently required to pay in progress. With rising prices degrees stable, exchange rates do non fluctuate significantly and the monetary value offered at the clip of the reserve is similar to the existent disbursals during the trip. Due to hyper-inflation, the value of the Sucre fell by 50 % between 1998 and 1999 ( Beckerman, N.D ) . If a tourer had paid for a circuit a twelvemonth in progress, so they would hold, theoretically, paid half-price for the bundle and the tour company would hold lost 50 % of their grosss due to the rising prices.
Because the dollar was the planetary modesty currency and well more stable than the Sucre ( the Ecuadorian currency ) , tourer companies utilizing the USD safely took reserves and collected grosss without holding to factor in the existent or projected inflationary costs.
The currency a state chooses to utilize frequently has a big impact on touristry ( World Travel Economic Report, 2011 ) . For illustration, the acceptance of the Euro among 17 European states has made it easier for people to go to member States since each uses the same currency. Currency can besides hold a psychological consequence on travellers as they decide where to pass their money – they tend to do judgements of monetary value based on sensed value. This means that a tourer from the United States might see a shirt for sale in Mexico for 132 pesos ( or $ 10 based on the exchange rate on April 10, 2012 ) and make up one’s mind that it is comparatively expensive compared to a similar shirt in the U.S. even though it is really the same monetary value.
On the other manus, Ecuador has an advantage in this respect since monetary values are lower than they are in the United States so tourers can compare merchandises as apples-to-apples and will probably see merchandises and services cheaply. For illustration, $ 10 for a hotel room in Ecuador will sound much cheaper to an American than 132 pesos. Tourists can besides avoid currency transition fees or bad transition rates and have a better apprehension of how much things genuinely cost as compared to their mention point-their state of beginning. Based on these factors entirely, it would ab initio look that dollarization would drive more tourers to the state ( Emanuel, 2002 ) .
Ecuador is divided into four geographical states that attract a diverse group of visitants. The state offers touristry chances to the Galapagos Islands, the seashore, the Highlandss and the Amazon Basin. In less than 24 hours, it is possible to go though all four of these zones via auto. Ecuador ‘s touristry is run by the Ministerio de Turismo, or Tourism Ministry, which uses the national motto “ Ama La vida ” ( Love life ) to pull visitants to the state. Some of the chief tourer attractive forces in Ecuador include Quito ( an UNESCO World Heritage Center ) , the Galapagos Islands ( wildlife and centre of Charles Darwin ‘s research ) , Otavalo ( one of the largest outdoor markets in South America ) and Volcano Chimborazo which is the furthest point on Earth from centre.
In 2011, the World Travel and Tourism Commission reported that nonnative touristry brought in $ 1.214 billion dollars in gross which accounts for 1.9 % of Ecuador ‘s GDP. This figure is expected to lift at an one-year growing rate of 4.2 % which would do it a $ 1.94 billion industry by the twelvemonth 2022 ( Figure 2 ) . This sector presently employs 100,000 people, therefore accounting for some 1.7 % of entire employment in the state, and is expected to lift at a 2.9 % one-year rate conveying the entire figure of people employed in touristry to over 136,000 by 2022 ( World Travel Economic Report, 2011 ) .
While touristry makes up merely a little portion of Ecuador ‘s economic system, it presents an tremendous chance for economic growing and foreign direct investing. Tourism, as a per centum of GDP in Ecuador ranks 147th relation to the 181 states studied by the World Travel and Tourism Commission.
Extrapolation of informations by the writers ; World Travel and Tourism Council Economic Report, 2011.
Reappraisal of the Literature
Considerable literature has been written sing dollarization, fixed exchange rate regimen and regional integrating along with its primary positive effects on the traditionally defined capitalist market economic system.
“ The absence of pecuniary sustainability has caused many emerging and developing economic systems, such as Ecuador, to trust on the exchange rate as a nominal economic ground tackle. Consequently, successful ( dollarized ) fixed exchange rate governments have been much more common among emerging and developing economic systems than among high-income states ” ( Reinhart & A ; Rogoff, 2002, p. 529 ) .
Although much of the literature analyzes and defines dollarization as a stable and sustainable decree currency, other research compares dollarization to colonialism ( Cheng & A ; Wang, 2011 ) ; while Jaconsen ( 2011 ) explores dollarization as a stable exchange rate, e.g. , Poland ‘s pecuniary policy in 1990 ; dollarization has been shown to increase foreign direct investing, increase exports, balance the trade shortage, and let for the growing of the gross domestic merchandise ( OECD, 2010 ; Qusipe & A ; Whisler, 2006 ) .
The version of the USD brings many benefits including the extenuation and minimisation of inflationary hazard in the long and short term, an addition in foreign direct investing ( FDI ) , capital flow inward, a sustainable shop of value, and helps to stabilise the exchange rate and increases assurance among consumers and easier fiscal integrating into the planetary economic system ( Chang & A ; Velasco, 2000 ; Guide, A. , Hoelscher, Ize, A. , Marstone, D. , De Nicolo, G. , 2004 ) . Minda, as cited in the Economic Review ( 2006 ) besides points out that dollarization signals a governmental committedness to stabilisation. This committedness allows for fixed recognition rates and lowers involvement rates as the hazard of making concern in a dollarized state becomes significantly less.
Theoretically, dollarization is based on Hayek ‘s 1976 work titled, Choice in Currency. By necessitating cheaper and a more various currency, authoritiess have the duty to take their signifier of money.
“ Dollarization is the concrete manifestation of Hayek ‘s plan of pick in currency, by legalising currency permutation. This is an indirect recognition of the function of money as private belongings. Hayek tackles the issue on an single degree ; pick in currency has benefits for the entireness of the province ; unless the opinion elect sees low degrees of rising prices, believable pecuniary policy, and economic stableness as negatives ” ( as cited in Noko, 2011, p. 340 ) .
Bloch ( 2005 ) and others argue that dollarization is clearly a manner to avoid pecuniary breaks and cite grounds demoing that while rising prices diminutions significantly after dollarization, gross domestic merchandise rises. They besides claim that if a individual currency such as the USD were to be used by each state in the Latin American part, a important addition in GDP would go on to happen while maintaining rising prices at low rates.
Other research has suggested that fiscal integrating ( via dollarization ) is more good to an economic system on a long-run footing. Frankel & A ; Rose ( 1998 ) discovered through empirical grounds that pecuniary integrating is a accelerator for extremely correlative concern rhythms. Looking at 21 industrialised states, they found a positive correlativity between increased trade and concern rhythm synchronism.
As a sustainable industry, Enriquez ( 2010 ) discusses touristry as it relates to economic development and growing in Cuba. She identifies the primary dogmas of industry growing including stableness and foreign direct investing. Similar to the Ecuadorian paradigm, a cardinal factor in the recovery of touristry in Cuba was the engagement of foreign concern and foreign direct investing influx. This engagement “ impacted the touristry sector straight ” ( p.96 ) and accounted for some 400 % growing in export net incomes. In Ecuador, after the initial currency crisis ended in 2001 and dollarization commenced, foreign direct investing influxs accelerated from a negative 23 million in the twelvemonth 2000 to over 271 million dollars in 2006 before diminishing to 167 million dollars in 2010 ( World Bank Data, 2012 ) .
A successful and sustained touristry industry besides stimulates growing in other state sectors such as employment, retail gross revenues, eating houses, cab menus, artesian trade, and private lodging rents ( Colantonio & A ; Potter, 2006 ) non to advert their associated revenue enhancement grosss to governmental caissons. Local building starts can besides be considered a positive rippling of touristry. The World Tourism Organization ( 2012 ) defines sustainable touristry as, “ Tourism that takes full history of its current and future economic, societal and environmental impacts, turn toing the demands of visitants, the industry, the environment and host communities ” ( p.1 ) .
Vidal & A ; Fundora infer that as the touristry industry grows the demand for new hotels, bars and related substructure besides grows in proportion ( 2008 ) . Thus these concealed grosss are an added value benefit and contribute towards a sustainable industry growing rate, a higher criterion of life for citizens, higher disposable incomes, more pick for consumers, lower retail monetary values due to competition, and a uninterrupted upward tick in gross domestic merchandise ( Mesa-Lago & A ; Vidal-Alejandro, 2010 ) .
Global touristry today is one of the fastest and largest turning industries. This industry is a cardinal section of an emerging economic system ‘s economic development and sustainability. A considerable sum of research has been written about touristry, its sustainability and its positive effects on developing economic systems. Tourism is primary concerned with growing chiefly due to its labour strength every bit good as conveying local and regional economic benefits ( Swarbrooke, 1999 ) . The addition in employment has straight “ contributed to the upgrading, modernisation, increased efficiency of domestic productive capacity and substructure development ” ( Carty, p.10 ) every bit good as developing planetary connexions and related webs ( Carty, 2009 ; Peters, 2002 ) .
Tourism becomes sustainable when combined with a assortment of other factors including a stable currency and an exchange rate which makes things less expensive for visitants ( Colantonio & A ; Potter, 2006 ) . In the early portion of 2000, touristry was the chief beginning of gross for over 50 % of emerging economic systems ( Benavides, 2001 ) . The World Tourism Organization ( 2012 ) has identified cardinal tendencies in the industry. Their research has discovered:
Demand for international touristry grew by 4.6 % in 2011 ;
International touristry grosss for 2011 are estimated at US $ 1,030 billion worldwide, up from US $ 928 billion in 2010 ( +3.9 % ) , puting new records in about all finishs despite current economic challenges in many planetary markets ;
In the first four months of 2012, international tourer reachings grew at a rate of about 5 % ;
The figure of international tourer reachings worldwide is projected to increase by 3.3 % a twelvemonth on norm from 2010 to 2030. This represents 43 million more international tourer reachings every twelvemonth, making a sum of 1.8 billion reachings by 2030 ( p.2 ) .
Harmonizing to the WTO ‘s Tourism 2020 study, the top three tourer finishs in 2020 will be Europe with some 717 million visitants, East Asia and the Pacific with 397 million followed by the Americas with a projected 282 million tourers ( p.1 ) . This projection suggests that touristry will non merely survive this negative current planetary economic clime, but will in fact thrive.
The hereafter of touristry is dependent upon development and economic ends ( Shikida, Yoda, Kino, Morishige, 2009 ) ) . Given today ‘s economic worlds, the drift for sustainable industry development must fall on local authoritiess in close coaction with community members who must be charged with making and keeping strategic ends. Integrating touristry to suit within the cultural and environmental construction is an ongoing undertaking, chiefly due to the uninterrupted growing that the industry has shown both in the past and its jutting future growing.
Entrepreneurism is besides a factor that should be taken into history when gestating a long-run growing scheme. Consequently, Koh ( 2000 ) , suggests that “ the greater the degree of touristry entrepreneurism, the greater the likeliness that touristry attractive forces and support endeavors would be created, and accordingly, the greater the socioeconomic benefits associated with touristry development ” ( p.209 as cited in Briedenhann & A ; Wickens, 2004 ) .
In amount, touristry sustainability involves careful planning centered on the chance that it allows. Unseen in other industries, e.g. fabrication, .the uninterrupted growing of touristry, particularly in topographic points like Ecuador and other Americas locations, provides stakeholders the chance to capitalise on the economic and other benefits that it provides.
In order to acquire a concise apprehension of the costs of going to Ecuador, the methodological analysis process includes analysing the costs of an 8-11 twenty-four hours, across-the-board Tourss to the state at the Economic, 3-star and 4/5-star cordial reception degrees. The information and subsequent analysis will be calculated by averaging the costs of assorted circuit companies that operate in Ecuador merely. These Tourss will be of the whole state and non of a specific part and will except international air menu. This will guarantee that the average monetary value is exemplifying of the state and non a peculiar part.
After finding the mean cost of the travel bundle, the Numberss will be valued retroactive to 1991 based on the consumer monetary value index ( CPI ) in order to compare the monetary values of these trips before and after dollarization to reason how the tourer sector has been affected by dollarization. Appendix A shows how the cost of an economic circuit may hold been priced over the past two decennaries. The methodological analysis and quantitative analysis uses the mean of an 8-11 twenty-four hours tour to Ecuador based on economic, 3-star and 4/5-star adjustments. The information will be extrapolated to demo the mean monetary values of touristry in Ecuador.
As illustrated in Appendix A, the mean economic circuit costs $ 1,201 while a 3-Star circuit costs $ 2,205 and a 4/5-Star circuit costs $ 4,435. In order to look at how these monetary values have changed over clip, this survey has retroactively predated the value of the costs to 1991 in order to better exemplify how much these trips might hold been priced during different clip periods of the crisis period of the mid-to-late 1990 ‘s through the early portion of 2000.
The cardinal clip period and focal point of this research is the mid to late 1990s during which Ecuador experienced the crisis of hyperinflation, to the early 2000s when dollarization of Ecuador was steadfastly implanted. The undermentioned graphic shows the arrested development of an economic trip with the ruddy line stand foring costs based on rising prices in the US while the bluish line represents costs based on rising prices in Ecuador.
Beginning: Extrapolation of informations by the writers ( Appendix A ) .
Figure 3 indicates that dollarization has stabilized rising prices as the two lines merge around the twelvemonth 2009. It is believed that tourists no longer had to worry about the hyperinflation panic experienced throughout the 1990s, therefore felt safe devising reserves good in front of their scheduled travel without fright of effect.
As it turns out, rising prices is non that strong of a determiner in the figure of tourer reachings in Ecuador. A computation of the correlativity coefficient, R, between the rising prices rates of 1995-2010 and the figure of touristry reachings was 0.35. This means that merely 12.5 % of the discrepancy in touristry reachings can be explained by the discrepancy in rising prices rates. While these two variables tend to travel together as shown Figure 4 there are more accurate ways to explicate the fluctuation in touristry in Ecuador.
Extrapolation of informations by the writers, WTO Tourism Data ; WTTC 2010.
In the hopes of insulating the effects dollarization had on the tourer sector in Ecuador, this research has besides compared the figure of tourer reachings in Ecuador to the figure of reachings throughout the Americas part. These two variables are really closely related with a correlativity coefficient of 0.89. The r-squared is besides a high 78.7 % which shows that these two sets of informations are extremely correlated. Figure 5 shows this correlativity.
Beginning: extrapolation of the informations by the writers ; WTO Tourism Data, 2010 ; WTTC
This intent of this paper is to find if touristry reaching rates and grosss were affected by external variables such as rising prices and dollarization during the period 1999-2004. The analyses of the statistical arrested development suggest that touristry is independent from rising prices – nor did the debut of dollarization have a important impact on the figure of touristry reachings. While dollarization provides several comfortss as a universe currency and may hold helped tourers experience more comfy engagement Tourss in progress, the chief advantage of dollarization was that it has allowed for simple and fast currency transitions which in bend made monetary values easier to understand.
Based on the analysis of the information, this research suggests that tourers will go on to see Ecuador regardless of the currency or planetary economic environment. While the rates of rising prices indicate a statistically weak positive relationship with the figure of tourer reachings, comparing Ecuador ‘s touristry sector to the aggregative sum of reachings throughout the Americas provides a much stronger correlativity. The initial hypothesis that dollarization played a important function in the sustenance of the touristry sector in Ecuador is likely rejected.
Areas of Future Research
Areas for future research can include a similar sampling of touristry in other Latin American states. This would beef up the proposition and the findings of this paper saying that touristry rates are non likely affected by the external factors sing economic status and the debut of a new currency ; in this instance the dollar.
A study of value and consumer perceptual experience would travel a long manner in foretelling tendencies based on the specific variables such as population per centum life below the poorness line, in utmost poorness, or mean rewards per month. These consequences could impact future governmental policy as it relates to tourism, e.g. , local statute law and revenue enhancement allotment.
Additionally, a specific expression into dollarization, population criterions of life additions, and more specific economic gages over clip could foreground forms or tendencies that would function to open-up new avenues of understanding sing the dogmas of touristry, the function of the local SME concern proprietor finally adding entrepreneurial investing into this sector.
Quite evidently, to do the claim that economic conditions do non impact the touristry industry without important, relevant information analysis is slightly premature, nevertheless, as of this composing the tendencies in touristry appear to be increasing, irrespective of the economic systems in Europe, Asia, or the United States ( Figure 5 ) . Tourists continue to get in Ecuador in record Numberss, and the ensuing grosss continue to appreciate over clip. A longitudinal survey that correlates reachings, grosss and economic conditions globally utilizing economic systems that have been “ dollarized, ” would add to the range of touristry and those conditions which affect it.
The add-on of adding other states in South America as extra variables would be necessary in order to confirm the sustenance of the void hypothesis in this peculiar research ; the nothing was non rejected.
Another country that should be studied and analyzed is the demographic and geographic information sing the visitants coming to Ecuador. Past demographic tendencies need to be analyzed to find the futuristic trends-understanding who is coming, where they are traveling, and how much they spend in Ecuador will help local policy shapers and community leaders in developing a long-run strategic program. An developing, or even worse, an undeveloped strategic program that clearly shows the gaining control market portion is inefficient, uneconomical and counterproductive to emerging economic systems similar to Ecuador ‘s.
Finally, it would function the touristry industry greatly if research would place, specify and categorise some of the basic premises sing the phenomenon of sustainable touristry. Thus the inquiry that possibly should steer this/these surveies is this: Is touristry, per Se, an sole entity upon itself or is it an activity that encompasses holistic economic development, e.g. , substructure development, etc. ? Knowing the reply to this inquiry would find if touristry, as an industry is sustainable over clip.
Restrictions to the Study
Restrictions to this survey include, but are surely non limited to holding similar informations for the 20 old ages up to the twelvemonth 2000 in which to better analyze tendencies through statistical analysis ; the deficiency of an a quantitative N size based original papers research or study instrument, and other informations correlativities placing assorted independent and dependent variables.
Extra restrictions include the usage of lone Ecuador ‘s touristry as the dependant variable ; the likely touristry bundle gross revenues monetary value is non exact, but estimated ; specific costs, including revenue enhancement and rising prices in USD sums were non calculated or used as a variable, nor was the average disbursement per tourer for each geographic location in Ecuador analyzed.
What can be classified as “ concealed grosss ” were non included in this survey because they are non reported or known. These include touristry grosss spent on non-taxed or unaccredited activities including unregulated street sellers, illicit drug purchases particularly to tourers from the United States, Ecuadorian concerns that do non follow with the revenue enhancement Torahs i.e. , neglecting to describe nonexempt gross revenues, and of class monies spent on corruptness including final payments to governmental or other entities, graft and transplant, i.e. , tourers corrupting functionaries for favours, etc.
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