Abstraction
From the penetration of the insouciant relationship between poorness and seasonal migration, the survey is an effort to propose relevant developmental policies to do such migration as a factor of support development. To this intent, one-off collected informations used to run OLS arrested development technique. For endogeneity job a Hausman erro trial has drawn and an interaction factor is included to heighten the hardiness of the theoretical account. The consequences show that formulated policies should be contributing to heighten migratory labour productiveness by roll uping human, physical, fiscal and cultural capital. The survey concludes that the procedure of accretion would be purposive to increase the capableness of migrators which is so go an instrument to engender the productiveness of labour at finish.
1. Introduction
Development policies in about all underdeveloped states are oriented about poorness decrease aims but it is found that, among others, geographical farness ( Reardon, 1997 ; Waddington, H. et al. , 2003 ) and isolation from the growing centre ( Bird and Shepherd, 2003 ) makes undertakings more complicated to explicate and implement policies. In every bit much as this research is focused on pertinent policies to seasonal domestic migration and its deduction on family poorness position.
Development can be brought through economic, fiscal and societal investing ways of increasing productiveness. But all these ways are someway obligated by different grounds ( e.g. investing environment, high input monetary value, high end product monetary value etc ) and hence labour market does non extended at the distant topographic points in the underdeveloped state. This prevalent status bound people ‘s income at origin therefore they are forced to seek support elsewhere to get the better of seasonal crisis or increase income.
Empirically Labor mobility has long been studied as a factor of production ( Engelen et al. 2004 ) , therefore the procedure of labour migration has tied with economic development procedure ( Taylor and Martin, 2001 ) . The scholarly and policy arguments on migration and development have perceived that migration menaces societal and economical stableness ( Deshingkar and Grimm, 2004 and Ellis, 2003, de Hass, 2008 ) and a job of development ( Black et al. 2003 ) which means migrators act as a de-developing, destabilising factor and are merchandise of poorness.
The above treatment reveals that the poverty-migration argument has long manner to travel as contentions grows up along with gradual parts from different subjects have been thicken up. In the field of development economic sciences, poverty-migration interface is non good documented yet. Particularly, in context of developing state where seasonal domestic migration is so permeant that demands immediate apprehensiveness on the issue of poorness decrease. This remnant necessity along with predominating rational arguments builds a logical land of contemplation on the insouciant relationship of poorness and migration to make a pertinent research on the issue. Therefore this research is a matter-of-fact effort to clarify the fact in inquiry in a range of understanding the support of hapless archipelagos.
Problem statement and research inquiry
The survey is focused to the point in the Haor support in northeasterly Bangladesh which is a poorness stricken, geographically distant and environmentally sensitive part. Despite of being individual harvest and return flash inundation affected country, it produces 20 % of state ‘s entire basic nutrient, covers about one fifth of entire land mass and provides support for 20 1000000s people. Along with cereals and land revenue enhancements, the country provides 1000000s of dozenss of sweet H2O fish for local and international market therefore authorities earn foreign currencies. But still the country is underplayed to develop. None public and private attempts have taken yet to widen employment chances let entirely societal investing. Like other geographically stray countries[ 1 ]in the universe ( e.g.Zimbabwe, Cote D’Ivore, Shahelian states in Africa ) , people of the Haor country assign seasonal domestic migration at non-crop season to get by with crisis. In this state of affairs inquiries originate: how this kind of support variegation affects family ‘s poorness position? Is at that place any policy required for the socio-economic development of family which boost seasonal domestic migration is a factor of development? To reply these inquiries it is indispensable to make critical reappraisal of some old surveies which would be a guideline for the remainder of work of this research.
2. Analytic Model
Migrants are neither unambiguously distributed nor inherently homogeneous in character. Therefore, their part in the procedure of development reveals ill-defined apprehension. Empirical surveies ( Afsar 2005, de Hass 2008, Rafique et Al. 2006, Ellis 2003, Kotari 2002, Weddington and Sabates-Wheeler 2003, to call a few ) find that gender-specific constrain, ecological exposure and extremely unequal entree to employment, market, instruction, wellness, natural resources and power do affair in the regular battle and make restrict the capableness of the sheer part of people of developing universe to get the better of their state of affairs of poorness.
Migration means the variegation of income beginnings which is in the response to failure of or losing markets for land, labour, recognition or insurance, as an ex ante hazard direction scheme or ex station get bying scheme ( Barrett et al. , 2001, Rasid, et al. , 2008, Konseiga, 2005 ) . People migrate seasonally to seek chances of net incomes ( Rogaly et al. , 2002 ) , to acquire out from poorness and survive in quickly altering economical, societal and environmental conditions ( Ellis, 2003 ) .
‘Crop seasonality and migration ‘ both are later related to rural support in Bangladesh ( Shamsuddin, 1981 ) . Literatures ( e.g. Shahriar et Al. 2006, Shonchoy 2008, Kabir et Al. 2008 ) on seasonal migration has concentrated to Northwestern[ 2 ]poorness afflicted part of Bangladesh. However, some research workers, although, merely touch the phenomenon but pass through without catching up additively. The authorities organisations, international bureaus and bookmans give concentration on internal and international migration where as internal migration surveies have focused chiefly on urban poorness and development.
The hapless people of Northwestern Bangladesh migrates to get by with seasonal nutrient crisis ( Shahriar et al. , 2006 ) but this kind of support scheme is non a feasible solution for the sustainability ( Shonchoy 2008 ) . The research workers identified that along with single feature and economic factors of origin influence seasonal migration.
The day-to-day battles of rural hapless and the header mechanism has been delved out in an ethnographic survey by Kabir et Al. ( 2008 ) . The survey deduces that the hapless people migrate – what they do n’t wish to delegate usually- during environment crisis ( e.g. harvest failure, inundation, river eroding etc ) and monga when the predominating societal protection system – formal and informal- fails to back up the hapless or when the system is unaccessible by them. They find that neither ‘push-pull mechanism ‘ nor pay differential induce migration instead the chase of seasonal migration is purposive to get the better of seasonal crisis. The research besides place different watercourses of migration stemmed by gender, instruction, age, household assets ( e.g. land ) and totted up the ambivalent positions in the knit of seasonal migration and poorness when the exposure and societal protection affair to diversify support in the beginning ab initio and finish subsequently on.
A survey ( Shonchoy, 2008 ) has focused on the determiners of seasonal migration determination and the positions of NGO in pay outing recognition to seasonal migrators. In this survey, neither poorness nor ecological features of the beginning have been considered in clarifying relationship of these factors with seasonal internal migration. Though pertinent, survey undertook by Shaharia ( 2006 ) has found that economic factors, ecological exposure and personal properties of migrator have strong effects on the determination of seasonal migration. But this survey warily overlooked the effects of such migration on poorness position of migratory families and really carefully bypassed the income of harvest season which is every bit supportive as supplying capital to diversify support. None the above surveies thought of on family ‘s support assets which stimulate support variegation in off-farm, non-farm sectors at beginning and in delegating seasonal migration elsewhere.
In Bangladesh, surveies[ 3 ]on inundation induced seasonal migration are really hapless ( merely one innovator survey has been done by Rayhan and Grote ( 2007 ) but seasonality ) and poorness as a determiner of migration has non discussed decently allow entirely good certification. Afsar ( 2005 ) asserts that the function of migration in cut downing poorness has non been adequately highlighted in the bing surveies and till migration-poverty interface remains a ill researched country in Bangladesh.
Relevant propositions
To reply the 1st research inquiry ‘how this kind of support variegation affects family ‘s poorness position? ‘ some propositions are obviously evolved to prosecute justification. The propositions are:
a ) There is a negative association prevailing between keeping of harvest cultivation land of family and the presence of season domestic migrator in the family.
B ) There is a negative association prevailing between poorness position and cultivated landholding of family.
degree Celsius ) There is a negative association between dry season income and family poorness position.
vitamin D ) There is a positive association prevailing between seasonal domestic migration and Poverty position of family.
3. Methodology
3.1 Data Collection Process
The principle of taking the survey country is rested on Upazila ( sub-district ) -level Lower Poverty Incidence Map ( 2004 ) and Union ( sub-sub-district ) -level chance of High Level Incidence Poverty Map ( 2004 ) prepared by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics ( BBS ) in coaction with the United Nations World Food Program. The information under population nose count ( BBS, 2001 ) revealed that more than 50 % families in these small towns did non hold any arable land where as for the remainder of the brotherhood the figure was approximately 45 % , which may intend that the selected five small towns are poverty stricken. For this survey, the families are selected in a two phases trying procedures.
Stage-1
At origin of field study, the numbering of all families in the five small towns was done with the aid of short questionnaire which provided information for family income, outgo, household size and business of the family caput. The entire sum of families was 1265 ( though the figure was 1050 in 2001 nose count ) which were so categorized into three different groups in conformity with poorness position. In making so, an upper income poorness line was calculated to categorise hapless and non-poor families. In add-on, with the aid of calculated lower poorness line utmost hapless families were besides identified from the hapless group.
Stage-2
In choosing a representative sub-sample of the sample, Krejcie and Morgan ‘s ( 1970 ) suggestion[ 4 ]was followed in this survey. After categorising the families a random sample of 292 families was selected, the rational portion of each class was confirmed in equal weight ( table-1 ) .
Table 1: The sample and sub-sample of the survey.
The figure of families
V1
V2
V3
V4
V5
Entire
Sample
147
154
450
65
449
1265
Sub-sample
34
36
104
15
104
292
Note: V1- Chawrapara, V2-Chandpur, V3-Gaglajur, V4- Mohabbot Nagar and V5-Manderbari small town.
Then the families from each group were picked up indiscriminately. After choice of needed sum of families, the interviews were administered with structured and semi-structured questionnaires. From the collected information, families are once more categorised harmonizing to their ego perceptual experience[ 5 ].
3.2 Method
The chief aim of this research is to research the effects of flood induced seasonal domestic migration ( ) on family poorness position ( ) therefore the relationship has come by understanding the linkage of such migration to poorness. Given the agricultural, ecological and geographical features of the Haor country, it is assumed that the labours works in that country at dry season and migrate at flood. Therefore, the effects of migration on poorness can be explored through- a ) The dry season income ( ) and family resource ( ) factors which affect both migrators ‘ leaning and poorness B ) the mediating factor/s that affects new support scheme degree Celsius ) some other factors ( clip discrepancy and invariant ) that affect both migration pick and the poorness position of family.
Harmonizing to literature, both migration and poorness pertinent ’cause ‘ and ‘effect ‘ relationship, so this causality of migration and poorness can be stochastically determine from the undermentioned maps ( 1 ) and ( 2 ) –
In this map, andmean natural capital ( harvest cultivation land holding- ) of migrator family and human capital ( education level- ) of family caput severally. The Haor people migrate to other agricultural part when the support has failed at that place in the wt season ( Gardener and Ahmed, 2006 ) and the chance of migration is to be reciprocally related with the income at beginning ( Hay, 1980 ) and the determination of seasonal domestic migration depends on the fiscal capital, investing attitude and return of investing ( Rabby et al. , 2010 ) . For the Haor hapless people, chances of support variegation are simply fringy and mostly unavailable during flood. The fiscal capital to put is stricken to high hazard, the ground may be pertinent to ecological exposure, high fluctuated trade good monetary values, development and some institutional constrains. Besides, poorness and support literature ( e.g. Kotari, 2002, Ellis, 2003, Rabby et al 2010 ) reveals that hapless are financially hapless excessively. So, the support variegation in the Haor country is extremely depended on the weight of dry season income. Therefore, the family ‘s migration chance equation is
Here means family size ( ) , gender ( ) , age of migrator ( ) and represents an interacting factor between natural capital and dry season income ( ) . The family size and age are clip discrepancy on one manus and on the other gender is clip invariant factors. In funcion-2 neither the cost of migration nor the price reduction rate are included because it is assumed that both are same for all possible migrators. It is more factual in understanding the affair as all the possible out-migrants are originated from a homogeneous geographical country and migrate to the same set of alternate finish.
After unsnarling ( lading down ) of group variables into single properties so the equation ( 1 ) and ( 2 ) can be written as linearly in structural equations
Equation ( 3 ) can be estimate straight if the informations are available for all explanatory variables so the simplest manner is to gauge a linearly reduced signifier of poorness position map. Therefore, a new equation is developed which is
But it is logical to presume that the equation ( 5 ) may bring forth bias appraisal, since. So there is a opportunity that some omitted or unseen variables/s which deduces to chew over of endigeneity prejudice. To corroborate whether such prejudice prevails or non, a Hausman mistake trial is done in the predating subdivision to choose the appraisal technique whether instrumental variable technique or ordinary least square technique is appropriate for this survey.
Trial for Endogeneity
Harmonizing to literature, an endogenity job would be present in between poorness and migration ( Mandola, 2008 ; Sabates-Wheeler, 2005 ) . Therefore, prior to use appropriate arrested development technique, to clear up whether the Ordinary Least Square ( OLS ) calculators produce consistent and efficient calculators or non, Hausman ‘s specification mistake trial has been carried out which is as follows:
In equation ( 3 ) and ( 4 ) , are exogenic variables. Because the chance of endogeneity between poorness ( ) and seasonal domestic migration ( ) , the decreased signifier of equation which needs to regress foremost is
, and in the 2nd phase, the equation is considered to regress is-
Here is the deliberate residuary retrieved from equation-5 and is the error term of several equation. After that a t-test is performed on the coefficient of. If it is important, simultaneousness job exist, otherwise OLS is an appropriate arrested development technique ( Gujarati, 2003 ; Mandola, 2008 ) to explicate to casual relationship between poorness and migration.
4. Consequence and Discussion
This portion is resumed by describing Hausman trial consequence. It is found that both at 5 % or 10 % degree of significance, the coefficient of is non statistically important. The t-statistics value ( 0.876 ) is much higher than zero. So there is no simultaneousness job. The consequence says that instrumental variable scheme is non necessary instead OLS arrested development technique is appropriate ( Gujarati, 2003 ) . In this instance, equation ( 3 ) and ( 4 ) are considered to gauge.
To increase the hardiness of the theoretical account specification some variables are non considered. For illustration, handiness to substructure helps families to better poorness state of affairs ( kam et al, 2005 ) but it is excluded as it makes other factors insignificant in the poorness theoretical account. Similarly, handiness to common H2O provides employment chance hence discourage seasonal domestic migration which is besides excluded from migration theoretical account. To get the better of multicolinearity, one interacting factor of the sum of harvest arable land of migratory family and her dry season income is placed in the migration equation. Overall the poorness theoretical account accommodates the full explanatory variables in 5 % significance degree which varies to 10 % in the migration theoretical account.
Consequences based on the OLS appraisal of theoretical account ( 3 ) and ( 4 ) are illustrated in the table-2 where necessary information evolves which pursue justification of the hypotheses have deduced earlier.
H-a: The consequence of harvest cultivation land of family on leaning of migration seems to depend on the sum of land keeping. Consequence in table-2 shows that land keeping and migration assignment are negatively associated as expected but non statistically important. However, when the interacting factor is included this variable is found statistically significance at 10 % degree. This determination confirms the expected association and therefore promotes to accept alternate proposition. This consequence commensurate to the ‘new economic sciences of labour migration theory ‘ and assorted surveies ( Afsar, 2000, 2005 ; Kuhn, 2005 ; Rahman et al. 1996 ; Mahmood, 1996 ; Rahman, 20002 ) confirm that migrators are landless and coming from poorer family.
H-b: The consequence of land keeping on poorness position of family is expected to be negative. But the determination of this survey reveals positive association. However, the T statistics ( 2.08 ) unveils the statistical significance at 5 % degree ( p = 0.0380 ) . This consequence poses to reject alternate hypothesis but except void hypothesis that there is a positive relationship exists between dependant variable ( poverty position of family ) and independent variable ( land retention of family ) . The ration of such determination is that the individual harvest cultivation is capable to blink inundation. Such ecological constrain causes immense harvest harm, addition debts, pushes families to fall to poverty. In this survey, self perceptual experience of poorness of family caput is considered as dependant variable which may non co-occur to the economic capital of family. Same consequence is besides reported by Kuhn ( 2005 ) asseverating that family land keeping is one of the chief inducements of motive on migration.
Table 2: OLS estimations of the impact of seasonal domestic migration on poorness position of the Haor families
Dependent Variables
Poverty position
Seasonal domestic migration ( but synergistic factor )
Seasonal domestic migration ( with synergistic factor )
Seasonal domestic migration ( 1 if family has at least one migrator )
-0.0742
( 2.1234 ) **
Dry season income ( in Taka )
7.74E-07
( 2.0804 ) **
-1.25E-06
( 2.0231 ) **
-2.63E-06
( 3.3438 ) ***
Cultivation land of migratory family ( in decimal )
0.0001
( 2.0844 ) **
4.52E-05
( 0.5116 )
-0.0001
( 1.3477 ) *
Education of family caput
-0.0118
( 1.7044 ) *
Age of migrator
-0.0086
( 4.632 ) ***
-0.0085
( 4.6226 ) ***
Gender of migrator ( 1 if male )
-0.7261
( 2.3410 ) **
-0.6965
( 2.2707 ) **
Family size
0.0403
( 3.1434 ) ***
0.0396
( 3.1293 ) ***
Interaction between landholding and dry season income
1.68E-09
( 2.7900 ) ***
Changeless
1.1077
( 32.0425 ) ***
1.2102
( 3.7855 ) ***
1.2346
( 3.9058 ) ***
Observations
292
292
292
Notes: Absolute value of t-statistics in the parentheses. * Significance at 10 % . ** Significance at 5 % . *** Significance at 1 % .
H-c: The expected association between dry season income and poorness position is identified by the survey. Though non strong in sum but the negative association is found statistically important at 5 % degree, therefore turn outing the alternate hypothesis. It is obvious that the dry season income which revolves around agricultural activities has a strong impact on the support of the Haor country. Sometimes this income provides fiscal capital, increases economic and physical capital ; boosts societal interaction and adds societal security which, implicitly or explicitly impart support to pull off hazard and follow get bying scheme at crisis. Mikita ( 2007 ) studies because of agricultural seasonality the hapless people assign migration to hold subsistence income.
H-d: The de-developing consequence of migration on family poorness position is non confirmed by the survey. Rather, the consequence permeates a positive development impact. Therefore, the hypothesis that migration has affirmatory association with family poorness position seems to keep for the support of the Haor people in Bangladesh. The hapless people ever run in short of necessity at non-crop flood season. When support fails in the Haor country so they migrate elsewhere ( Gardener and Ahmed, 2006 ) .
Other than the above findings, some of import findings are besides notably observed. The coefficient mark of single feature of migratory age is negative which is expected by old literatures ( Rafique et al. , 2006, 2003 ; Nurullah and Islam, 2008 ) . Like other survey ( Bhuyan et al. 2001 ) , this research besides finds that family size has influences on the leaning of delegating seasonal domestic migration. Family member would be move an insurance factor at the old age of family caput. This is besides confirmed by poorness and civilization and development surveies ( Kuhn, 2005 ) .
Along with economic and fiscal capital, human capital ( education degree of family caput ) is besides found important and statistically important with poorness position in this survey. Having such capital evolves income variegation chances at beginning ( Azam and Imai, 2009 ) . This group of people would be plus collector and salvaging at extremum season and consume at thin season without delegating seasonal migration. This determination may propose that the hapless are largely uneducated.
5. Policy deduction and farther research
Above findings and treatment permeate some drawbacks of policies required to advance seasonal domestic migration as a factor of development. Such migrators are chiefly pay labours and engaged in agribusiness sector both at beginning and finish. So the policy should prosecute to increase the fringy productiveness of labour at finish. As information is the basal instrument of policy preparation so a policy is required to guarantee available information on migrators. The civil society at both beginning and finish can set up a migration tabular array to discourse migrators ‘ jobs and supply necessary coordination. Migrants are largely uneducated ; hence basic fiscal instruction to migrators can assist to pull off remittals in a productive manner. Policy requires heightening human, fiscal and natural capital of migrators. To widen labour market at beginning, need-based analysis scheme has to be considered before to develop rural substructure ; better instruction and wellness installations and set up rural industries.
For the non-recursive relationship between poorness and migration, longitudinal informations are critically indispensable ( e.g. Sabates-Wheeler et al. , 2005 ) . Since this survey undertakes one twelvemonth one-off informations, so it does non supply the old twelvemonth poorness and following twelvemonth migration information from the twelvemonth of informations aggregation which compels to maintain aside non-recursive job. It is a affair of farther research if informations available.
Both theoretically and through empirical observation, along with the apprehension, strength of poorness varies with its dimensions ( Hossain, 2009 ; Kam et Al 2005 ) . In this analysis self perceptual experience of poorness is considered to explicate the propositions but the predicted consequences may non be similar for the money matrices of poorness. This requires a pertinent analysis with cautiousness as psychological and sociological poorness ne’er coincide to each other.
6. Decision
The largely uneducated and capital deficient pay labours from the Haor country assign seasonal migration for two to three months to other agricultural high land part at non-crop flood season. This survey attempts to gauge the insouciant relationship between such support scheme and poorness state of affairs of the Haor families by a theoretical account of two equations which gives some fruitful illustrations.
The land keeping impedes migration. And this plus has negative association with sociological positions of poorness. This consequence may differ if the psychological position of poorness is considered at the left manus side of the theoretical account. As ever, peak season income is critical for both migration leaning and poorness position of families. The most of import determination is that the consequence of seasonal domestic migration on poorness is noticeable which contradicts to de-development dogma.
The survey explores the precedence of increasing productive capacity of migrators by following capital development policies. Those policies should be contributing to roll up human, physical, fiscal and cultural capital of migrator and migrators ‘ families. The survey concludes that the procedure of accretion would be purposive to increase the capableness of migrators which is so go an instrument to engender the productiveness of labour at finish.
