Icelandic Financial Crisis
INTRODUCTION OF ICELAND ‘S ECONOMY
The state of Iceland is the smallest economic system within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD ) with a gross domestic merchandise ( GDP ) in 2007 of about $ 11.8billion. The Icelandic economic system has been based on Marine and energy resources. More late, Iceland has developed a really strong services sector, which accounts for two-thirds of the economic end product. Since the start of the decennary i.e. from 2000, Iceland has experienced peculiarly strong growing in its fiscal services sector. Trade histories for a big portion of Iceland ‘s GDP, with imports accounting for 46 % in value and exports accounting for 35 % in value of goods and services of GDP.
Iceland ‘s chief export point was fish and other Marine merchandises until the twelvemonth 2006, when Iceland began to capitalise on its abundant thermic energy resources to bring forth and export aluminium. A combination of economic factors over the early to mid-2000s led to Iceland ‘s current economic and banking hurt. In peculiar, entree to easy recognition, a roar in domestic building that fueled rapid economic growing and a wide deregulating of Iceland ‘s fiscal sector spurred the Bankss to spread out quickly abroad and finally played a function in the eventual fiscal prostration. Iceland benefited from favourable planetary fiscal conditions that reduced the cost of recognition and a sweeping liberalisation of its domestic fiscal sector that spurred rapid growing and encouraged Iceland ‘s Bankss to distribute rapidly throughout Europe.
The 2008-2010 Icelandic fiscal crisis was a major ongoing economic crisis in Iceland that involved the prostration of all three of the state ‘s major Bankss ( Kaupthing, Landsbanki, Glitnir ) following their troubles in refinancing their short-run debt and a tally on sedimentations in the United Kingdom. Relative to the size of its economic system, Iceland ‘s banking prostration was the largest suffered by any state in economic history of the universe. This was the chief ground why Iceland had to endure so much in the crisis.
Commenting on the demand for exigency steps, Prime Minister Geir Haarde said on 6 October 2008, “ There [ was ] a really existent danger… that the Icelandic economic system, in the worst instance, could be sucked with the Bankss into the vortex and the consequence could hold been national bankruptcy. He besides stated that the actions taken by the authorities had ensured that the Icelandic province would non really travel belly-up. At the terminal of the 2nd one-fourth 2008, Iceland ‘s external debt was 9.553 trillion Icelandic kronur ( ˆ50 billion ) , more than 80 % of which was held by the banking sector. This value compares with Iceland ‘s 2007 gross domestic merchandise of 1.293 trillion kronur ( ˆ8.5 billion ) . The assets of the three Bankss taken under the control of the FME totaled 14.437 trillion kronur at the terminal of the 2nd one-fourth 2008.
Monetary policy is the procedure a the authorities, cardinal bank, or pecuniary authorization of a state uses to command ( I ) the supply of money, ( two ) handiness of money, and ( three ) cost of money or rate of involvement to achieve a set of aims oriented towards the growing and stableness of the economic system.
Monetary theory hence provides penetration into how to craft optimum pecuniary policy. Monetary policy is contrasted with financial policy, which refers to authorities adoption, disbursement and revenue enhancement.
During the fiscal crisis, Iceland ‘s pecuniary policy credibleness had been really earnestly damaged. Unsatisfactory rising prices results had already undermined the credibleness of the pecuniary model, even before the fiscal crisis started and, accordingly, rising prices outlooks were ill anchored.
Icelandic economic experts had said that due to the immense impact of the crisis, reconstructing the credibleness was likely to take clip, and besides keeping it might be really hard.
However, after the crisis, the Monetary Policy Committee ( MPC ) had voted to take down the Central Bank involvement rates by 0.5 % . By back uping the involvement rate cut, it lead to the grasp of the krona in trade – leaden footings.
As in the ISLM Model, a lessening in the involvement rates leads to an addition in the money supply. Therefore, this has lead to an expansionary pecuniary policy, as the involvement rates were lowered, and besides the MPC supported or voted for lower involvement rates.
MONETARY POLICY GRAPH
The above graph shows the displacement in the LM towards right, which has lead to an enlargement in the LM curve. Since the MPC voted for a lower involvement rates, the money supply was increased. Therefore, the LM curve displacements from LM1 to LM2, taking to an expansionary of the pecuniary policy.
In economic sciences, financial policy can be defined as the usage of authorities outgo and gross aggregation to act upon the economic system. Fiscal policy refers to the overall consequence of the budget result on economic activity. There are three possible stances of financial policy:
* Neutral stance, which implies a balanced budget where, govt. disbursement = Tax Gross
* Expansionary stance, addition in the govt. disbursement and decrease in revenue enhancement gross
* Contractionary stance, lessening in the govt. disbursement and increase in revenue enhancement gross
During the fiscal crisis, there was an increased authorities debt. Due to the recession and lifting debt service costs, the public shortage was projected to be above 10 % of GDP in 2009, adding to the public debt load.
As a consequence, a considerable financial consolidation was hence needed to set public fundss back on a sustainable way and to pave the route for a successful euro-area entry. It was besides of import to cut down the shortage smartly in the coming old ages, so that the state can make the end of balance.
In order to extinguish the shortage, the authorities of Iceland had the option of revenue enhancement additions every bit good as disbursement cuts, it so decided to choose for the former as they were easier to present instantly.
The starting point for the revenue enhancement additions would hold been to change by reversal revenue enhancement cuts implemented over the roar old ages, but Iceland could no longer afford. This would affect the addition in the personal income revenue enhancement and besides raise the decreased rate of VAT ( Value Added Tax ) .
This planned financial consolidation, would affect steps which would assist to incorporate the outgos.
FISCAL POLICY GRAPH
The above graph, shows the displacement in the IS curve towards left, which leads to the contraction of the IS curve. Since the govt. decided to cut down their outgo and increase the revenue enhancement, in order to consolidate the financial policy, the IS has moved towards left, taking to an contractionary financial policy.
In economic sciences, rising prices can be defined as the rise in the general degree of monetary values of goods and services in an economic system over a period of clip. When the monetary value degree rises, so each unit of currency bargains fewer goods and services ; accordingly, one-year rising prices is besides eroding in the buying power of money – a loss of existent value in the internal medium of exchange and unit of history in the economic system. The effects of rising prices on an economic system are multiplex and can hold both at the same time positive and negative impacts.
Since Iceland, comes from a little domestic market, the Bankss in Iceland have financed their enlargement from acquiring loans on the inter-bank loaning market and, more late, by acquiring sedimentations from outside Iceland ( which are besides a signifier of external debt ) . Large sum of debt was besides taken by the families, which was tantamount to 213 % of the disposable income, doing rising prices in the state. Due to the pattern of the Central Bank of Iceland publishing loans ( liquidness ) to the different Bankss on the footing of exposed bonds which are freshly issued and publishing money on demand, this lead to rising prices being exacerbated.
Due to the fiscal crisis, the state of Iceland suffered rising prices. On 25th of March 2008, popular web site, Bloomberg.com that Iceland had raised its rates to 15 % by raising its repo rate by a immense 1.25 % in one twenty-four hours. The web site besides reported that the state was confronting an rising prices rate of about 7 % . However, the Central Bank of Iceland had a end of keeping the rising prices rate of about 2.5 % . Besides the Icelandic currency, krona has declined against the euro, from about 100 ISK per euro at the beginning of the twelvemonth ( 2008 ) , to its low-water mark of 125 on March 19 2008. Due to the involvement rate hike it had the consequence of traveling it to about 116 from approximately 122. In August 2006, the state of Iceland made intelligence when it had increased its involvement rate to 13.5 % . At that clip, the krona was really strong against the euro. Iceland made intelligence antecedently in August, 2006 when it increased its involvement rate to 13.5 % . The krona was so merchandising at a stronger at 90 to one euro.
Some chief factors why Iceland incurred rising prices was chiefly due to, the value of krona depreciated, secondly the monetary values of assorted trade goods kept on glide, and in conclusion, there was unsure consequence on pay understandings on labor costs.
Since the fiscal crisis brought a immense alteration in the development of the economic systems in the universe, every bit good as doing many Bankss go bankrupt, the Icelandic debt is now over 320 billion krona, which is approximately approximately $ 4 billion US dollars. This figure is immense ; as one can state sing that it ‘s about a one-fourth of their GDP.
Iceland Inflation Rate
The above graph shows Icelandic rising prices rate over the past 3 old ages. In the graph, one can do out how the rising prices rate climbed up systematically in the twelvemonth 2008, whereas in the twelvemonth 2009, the rising prices rates kept on falling except in the month of June where it increased, but since so it had kept on decreasing.
In the twelvemonth 2008, the ground why rising prices rate climbed up systematically, was because of the krona which had been deprecating, where as in the twelvemonth 2009, the rising prices rates kept on falling as the belongings monetary values fell, which resulted in the autumn of monetary values.
Unemployment can be defined as people who do non hold a occupation, have actively looked for work in the past four hebdomads, and are presently available for work. Besides, people who were temporarily laid off and are waiting to be called back to that occupation are counted as unemployed. Some types of unemployment are listed below:
* Structural Unemployment.
* Frictional Unemployment.
* Cyclical Unemployment.
Since the fiscal crisis, lead to big per centum of unemployment all over the universe, Iceland was besides one of them which had a rather high rate of unemployment. Unemployment in Iceland increased tree times more by the terminal of November 2008. There were more than 7000 registered jobseekers ( about 4 % of the work force ) in November compared to merely 2136 at the terminal of August 2008. The debt refund had become more dearly-won as household debt ( 80 % ) and 13 % denominated in foreign currencies had become indexed. The impact of the crisis was such that since October 2008, 14 % of the entire work force had experienced decreases in wage, whereas about 7 % of the work force had their working hours reduced. Harmonizing to IFL ( Icelandic Federation of Labour ) president Gylfi Arnbjornsson, the above figures were lower than expected More than 85 % of the work force who were presently registered as unemployed in the state, stated that they had become unemployed or lost their occupations in October after that, due to the economic prostration.
In December 2008, the unemployed figures which were registered in Iceland was 4.8 per cent, or around 7,902 people – an addition of some 45 per centum in November, harmonizing to the figures from the Directorate of Labour. These unemployment figures were the highest, Iceland had recorded since January 1997.
In the same month i.e. December in the twelvemonth 2007, unemployment rate partially was 0.8 per centum, or 1.357 people. The Directorate of Labour had estimated that the figure will lift to 6.4-6.9 per centum by the terminal of January 2009.
Among those unemployed, the rate of unemployment among immature people had increased the fastest, with the figure of registered 16 to 24 twelvemonth olds leaping from 1,408 to 2,069 in the month to the terminal of December 2008. This age group accounts for 23 per centum of the full idle sum.
The above graph shows the rate of unemployment over the past 7 old ages. During the fiscal crisis, the rates skyrocketed particularly in the twelvemonth 2010, due to the banking every bit good as fiscal prostration. Many became idle as Bankss and other sectors were closed.
Other ground why the rate was high in 2010 was, because the fishing sector was affected. This sector accounts for 10 % of the entire work force in the state.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
The Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) is defined in economic sciences as a basic step of a state ‘s overall economic end product. It is the market value of all concluding goods and services made within the boundary lines of a state in a twelvemonth. It is frequently positively correlated with the criterion of life, though its usage as a substitute for mensurating the criterion of life has come under increasing unfavorable judgment and many states are actively researching alternate steps to GDP for that intent.
The Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) can be determined in three ways, all of which should in rule give the same consequence. They are the merchandise ( or end product ) attack, the income attack, and the outgo attack.
Prior to the 2008-2010 crises, the economic system of Iceland had achieved high growing, besides had a low rate of unemployment, and a unusually even distribution of income all over the state. The economic system depended to a great extent on the fishing industry which is the chief beginning of their income, which provides 70 % of export net incomes and employs 10 % of the work force. Iceland ‘s economic system had been diversifying into fabrication and service industries in the last decennary, with new developments in package production, biotechnology, and touristry.
During the planetary fiscal crisis, the crisis-stricken Icelandic economic system ‘s GDP shrank by a record 6.5 % in 2009, despite holding a nice growing of 1 % in 2008 and monolithic growing of 6 % in 2007. The lessening in the gross domestic merchandise ( GDP ) by 6.5 % was a record in the national histories of Iceland.
There was a crisp diminution in GDP in last twelvemonth ( 2009 ) as the domestic outgo plunged by 20.1 % , so the family ingestion besides fell to 14.6 % due to unemployment and authorities ingestion dwindled by 3 % . Besides, Iceland ‘s fixed capital formation dropped by 49.9 % . These were the grounds why the gross domestic merchandise ( GDP ) fell by a immense border, in the twelvemonth 2009.
After the crisis, the Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) in Iceland managed to spread out at an one-year rate of 3.30 per centum in the last one-fourth i.e. in the twelvemonth 2009. Iceland Gross Domestic Product is now deserving 17 billion dollars or 0.03 % of the universe economic system, harmonizing to the World Bank. Iceland ‘s Scandinavian-type social-market economic system combines a capitalist construction and free-market rules with an extended public assistance system, including generous lodging subsidies.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ( GDP ) GRAPH
Iceland GDP Growth Rate
The above graph, describes the alterations in the gross domestic merchandise ( GDP ) of Iceland over the past 3 old ages. During the old ages 2007 & A ; 2008, Iceland recorded a growing in the GDP, which helped in hiking the Icelandic economic system. However, most of the twelvemonth in 2009, it recorded a immense diminution of 6.5 % , except in the last one-fourth i.e. in the month of December where it a recorded a positive GDP.
The chief grounds why the GDP declined in the twelvemonth 2009 was because the family ingestion, the authorities ingestion, every bit good the domestic outgo rate had fallen massively, ensuing in a negative GDP for the most portion of the twelvemonth.
The Iceland currency which is known as krona had been declined more than 35 % against the euro from January to September 2008.Inflation of consumer monetary values was running at 14 % and Iceland ‘s involvement rates had been raised to 15.5 % to cover with the high rising prices.
In the month of October 2008, the effects of fiscal crisis brought about a prostration in the Icelandic banking sector. The Central Bank of Iceland abandoned its effort to nail down the Icelandic krona at 131 kronur to the euro after it had tried to put this nog in the month. During the month, the Icelandic krona was merchandising at 340 to the euro when trading in the currency had collapsed because the last major Icelandic bank had been coup d’etat by the FME and therefore the loss of all krona trade glade houses. Then, the cardinal bank introduced limitations on the purchase of foreign currency within Iceland. From October to November, the European Central Bank quoted a mention rate of 305 kronur to the euro.
The Central Bank of Iceland had so set up a impermanent system of day-to-day currency auctions in the month of October to ease international trade. The value of the krona was determined by supply and demand which took topographic point in these auctions. The first auction sold ˆ25 million at a rate of 150 kronur to the euro. Commercial krona trading outside Iceland had once more been started in the terminal of October, at an exchange rate of 240 kronur to the euro, after which Icelandic involvement rates had been raised to 18 % . The foreign exchange militias of the Central Bank of Iceland had felled by US $ 289 million during the month of October 2008.
During November 2008, the existent exchange rate ( dismissing rising prices ) of the Icelandic krona, which was quoted by the Central Bank of Iceland, was about one-third lesser than the mean rate from the period 1980-2008, and besides 20 % lower than the historical depressions during the same period. The external rate which was quoted by the European Central Bank was still lower. On the last trading twenty-four hours of the month November, the Central Bank of Iceland had quoted 182.5 kronur to the euro, while the European Central Bank had quoted 280 kronur to the euro.
The economic system of Iceland is little and capable to high volatility. Iceland ‘s criterion of life is among the universe ‘s highest, in portion due to the overall openness of its economic system, which has allowed Iceland to harvest important benefits from specialisation and trade harmonizing to a study on the trade policies and patterns of Iceland published by the WTO Secretariat. Iceland has a assorted economic system with high degrees of free trade and authorities intercession. Iceland has a free market economic system with comparatively low revenue enhancements compared with other OECD states. However, authorities ingestion is less than in other Nordic states. Iceland ‘s trade policy is pursued along three chief paths: many-sided trade liberalization through the WTO, regional liberalization through the European Economic Area ( EEA ) with its EFTA/EEA spouses and the European Union and eventually, bilateral free trade understandings in cooperation with its EFTA spouses Norway, Liechtenstein and Switzerland. Iceland ‘s international pacts have strengthened foreign trade. The EEA Agreement covers the free motion of goods, individuals, capital and services. Membership in the EEA in 1994 and the Uruguay Round understanding brought greater market entree for Iceland ‘s exports, capital, labour, and goods and services, particularly seafood merchandises. Agribusiness is to a great extent subsidized and protected by the authorities, with some duties runing every bit high as 700 per centum. Iceland is a portion of the World Trade Organisation ( WTO ) . The WTO was established on the 1st of January 1995. It is an organisation designed to oversee and liberalise international trade. Since the early 1990s, Iceland and its other spouses in the European Free Trade Association ( EFTA ) – Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland – have established an extended web of contractual free trade dealingss in Central and Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean part and with states in other parts of the universe. The WTO trades with controlling of trade between take parting states ; it provides a model for negociating trade understandings. The state has signed a big figure of many-sided and bilateral understandings. Iceland is moreover strongly committed to the Doha Development Agenda and a just and just result that will profit the full rank.
Iceland supports the Doha Development Agenda Global Trust Fund, which is intended to help developing states in taking advantage of the chances created by increased trade liberalisation. Iceland exports 40 % of fish and fish merchandises, 40 % of aluminium and metal and animate being merchandises.
The chief imports are machinery and equipment, crude oil merchandises, groceries and fabrics and Cement. Iceland ‘s primary import spouse is Germany, with 12.6 % , followed by the United States, Norway, and Denmark. Currently, the largest trading spouse states are Germany, the UK, the Netherlands and the Nordic states. The fishing industry is one of the most of import industries. It provides 70 % of export income and employs 6.0 % of the work force ; hence, the province of the economic system remains sensitive to universe monetary values for fish merchandises. [ I ] The diverseness of Iceland ‘s exports has, nevertheless, increased significantly in recent old ages, due to structural reforms and denationalization of province owned entities in finance and other sectors.
Exports of manufactured merchandises have been turning quickly. Servicess now account for 36 % of entire export grosss while in 1990 the portion was 26 % .
Iceland ‘s ratio of services to entire trade is one of the highest among OECD states.
It is the Government ‘s stated aim to supply Icelandic agribusiness with a realistic chance to accommodate to alterations in its operating environment, to the benefit of husbandmans and consumers likewise.
The growing of international trade had been affected in the 1930s by the being of duties and other barriers to international trade. To avoid such jobs an understanding, the general Agreement of Trade and Tariffs, was concluded between 44 states which included Iceland. Iceland joined GATT in 1968. GATT stated that an international understanding should be created which required a binding codification of behavior for international trade ; its chief aim was the liberalisation of universe trade. Its rule was that there would be common benefits if international trade took topographic point on the footing of non-discrimination and should be bit by bit reduced through dialogues. The liberalisation for international trade gave Iceland assurance in their trade.
During the period 2003-07, Iceland developed from a state best known for its fishing industry into a state supplying sophisticated fiscal services, but was accordingly hit peculiarly difficult by the 2008 planetary fiscal crisis, which extended into 2009. [ two ]
Self-defense and self-preservation have characterized Iceland ‘s foreign trade policy since its independency from Denmark.
While Iceland is a extremely developed state, until the twentieth century, it was among the poorest states in Western Europe. However, strong economic growing has led Iceland to be ranked foremost in the United Nations ‘ Human Development Index study for 2007/2008. [ three ]
Iceland enjoys some of the strongest economic freedoms among all states However ; Iceland is really isolationist as respects to the import of farm merchandises and licences every bit good as province monopolies of imports ( undergoing a dismantlement ) . Some works merchandises such as murphies and flowers are capable to seasonal restrictions.
Iceland implements high duties on agricultural merchandises in order to protect the domestic agricultural sector. Duties on certain assortments of veggies, e.g. tomatoes, Cucumis sativuss and bell Piper nigrums are significantly higher during the turning season to protect domestic nursery manufacturers. Meat and dairy merchandises, and murphies are besides protected by significant responsibilities. Animal provender can transport tariffs up to 55 % .
Over 90 % of imports are non capable to import limitations or responsibilities other than the same value-added revenue enhancement applied to domestically produced goods. Particular excise revenue enhancements are levied on sugar and some sugar merchandises, murphies, and motor vehicles. Agricultural merchandises remain the most to a great extent taxed. In March 1970, Iceland acquired full rank in EFTA. On 28 February 1973, Iceland ratified a trade understanding with the European Community ( subsequently named the European Union ) taking to the riddance of duties on industrial goods. A jurisprudence authorising the constitution of free trade zones went into consequence
in 1992. Iceland ‘s trade government underwent considerable liberalisation in the 1990s with accession to the European Economic Area ( EEA ) in 1993, and the Uruguay Round in 1994.
Current responsibility rates by and large range from 0 % to 30 % ad valorem and the norm leaden duty is 3.6 % . Some goods enter duty-free, such as meat, fish, and dairy merchandises.
Iceland ‘s mean MFN applied duty is 5.9 % . A high per centum of duty lines ( 70 % ) benefit from responsibility free intervention. The mean MFN applied duty ratefor agricultural merchandises is 18.3 % ( WTO definition ) compared with 2.5 % for other goods. [ four ]
Iceland offers discriminatory duties on imports from 37 WTO Members under several free-trade understandings. Regional liberalisation has advanced the most within the model of the European Economic Area ( EEA ) ; however, the mean duty on merchandises from EEA spouses is still 3.2 % , reflecting the exclusion of several agricultural merchandises from duty-free intervention.
A new Customs Law came into force on 1 January 2006 ( Act No. 88/2005 ) . Harmonizing to the governments, imposts clearance for all importing facets is computerized ; electronic informations interchange ( EDI ) covers 98 % of the declarations of import and export houses. Customss clearance utilizing EDI takes a affair of proceedingss, or a few hours if processed manually.
The happening of the fiscal and economic crisis left economic experts and policymakers inquiring about its causes. A huge bulk of economic expert and policymakers blamed the free-market reforms. At the beginning of 1990s, the authorities of Iceland implemented a set of free-market reforms under the leading of David Oddsson. The companies own by the province were privatized. Fiscal markets were liberalized. The cardinal bank was granted full independency in polishing extended rising prices. Besides, the corporate revenue enhancement rate was cut from 52 per centum in 1985 to 15 per centum in 2008. When the fiscal crisis battered the stock market which led to the dislocation of the banking sector, many economic experts, analysts and policymakers instantly blamed free-market reforms as the first beginning of the crisis.
However, the empirical grounds and a macroeconomic analysis contrary this sort of thought. The chief beginning of the fiscal and economic crisis that evolved in Iceland is a failure of pecuniary policy. In 2002, Iceland witnessed a mild recession that ended rapidly. Ever since so, the cardinal bank invariably failed to run into the rising prices mark. In response, it raised benchmark involvement rate to double-digit degrees. As a effect of a arresting spread in involvement rates, the Icelandic krona strongly appreciated. In such fortunes, high domestic involvement rates discouraged the domestic banking sector from borrowing in domestic currency. With involvement rates standing at double-digit degrees, exposed involvement para encouraged families, houses and Bankss to borrow in foreign currency.
Iceland has been a portion of the intelligence recently because of the recent volcanic eruptions which took topographic point on 15th April 2010 in the glacier Eyjafjallajokull in South Iceland. Day to twenty-four hours concern in Iceland apart from the straight affected countries in the South has non been affected. The ash hurled into the ambiance by the eruption has nevertheless caused serious break of air traffic due to which figure of flights have been cancelled and besides heavy losingss has been incurred to the air power sector, particularly in UK.
[ I ] ^ a B degree Celsius vitamin D “ The World Factbook – Iceland – Economy
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