The economic performance of Nigeria

CHAPTHER ONE

1.1 BACKGROUND OF STUDY

One of the biggest challenges for oil-producing states is how to utilize its oil wealth strategically to advance sustainable growing, for illustration, in Nigeria, the monolithic addition in oil gross as an wake of the Middle-East war of 1973 created unprecedented, unexpected and unplanned wealth for Nigeria. Then began the dramatic displacement of policies from a holistic attack to benchmarking them against the province of the oil sector. Now, in order to do the concern environment conducive for new investings, the authorities began puting the newfound wealth in socio-economic substructure across the state, particularly in the urban countries ( Adedipe, 2007 ) . Over the past three decennaries, gulf cooperation council ( GCC ) states have by and large followed procyclical financial policies to alterations in oil gross. Following the crisp addition in planetary oil monetary values in the 1970s and early 1980s, authorities disbursement in all these states rose every bit fast as oil gross through a monolithic public investing plan in substructure, financial inducements to develop the industrial sector, and the acceptance of a generous public assistance system.

Notwithstanding the addition in disbursement, ample overall financial excesss were recorded in all GCC states during those old ages, taking to a crisp accretion of official plus. The being of big foreign official assets facilitated a comparatively low degree of accommodation in disbursement in the period 1980-86, when petroleum oil monetary values declined significantly. Concerns for prolonging domestic demand in order to stave off a crisp decrease in non-oil growing has normally militated against important financial accommodation in the face of falling oil monetary values in GCC states. Spending was merely cut by the equivalent to about half the autumn in entire gross in Saudi Arabia, 20 per centum in the United Arab Emirates, and 10 per centum in Qatar. Facilitated by the completion of major substructure investings, the cutbacks fell largely on spendings for undertakings, while current outgo rose in all these states, except in Saudi Arabia. In Bahrain and Kuwait, passing continued to lift across the board. In contrast, in Oman, lower oil gross was more than offset by higher investing income and fees and charges, taking to a farther addition in outgo in the period ( Fasano, 2000 ) .

Harmonizing to Piana ( 2001 ) , Public outgo is the value of goods and services bought by the State and its articulations. It plays four chief functions: contributes to current effectual demand, expresses a co-ordinated urge on the economic system which can be used for stabilisation, concern rhythm inversion, and growing intents, increases the public gift of goods for everybody and gives rise to positive outwardnesss to economic system and society, the more so through its capital constituent.

Harmonizing to Ely and Wicker ( 2002 ) , authorities outgo can be classified into the followers: The direct cost of national defense mechanism includes the wage and equipment of military personnels, and the cost of ships, and cannon, and ammo, etc. The indirect cost is represented by the pension list, every bit good as by the great waste of resources and chances for labour in times of war, expenditures for internal security includes the cost of our constabulary system in all its subdivisions, and that of our bench system, since both of these are occupied about entirely in procuring individuals and belongings from hurt, expenditures for the hapless and unfortunate, that is, every advanced authorities recognizes an duty to widen alleviation to paupers, to the deaf, the blind, the insane, and the feeble-minded, who, from natural defects, are unable to keep their ain in the battle for being, expenditures for carry throughing the commercial maps and outgos for carry throughing the developmental map. All these conglomerate into bettering the economic public presentation of a state. The economic public presentation of any state is measured by the rate of growing of its gross domestic merchandise ( GDP ) .

Harmonizing to Piana ( 2001 ) , public outgo has an immediate impact on GDP. An addition of public outgo raises GDP by the same sum, other things being equal. Furthermore, since income is an of import determiner of ingestion, that addition of income will be followed by a rise in ingestion: a positive feedback cringle has been triggered between ingestion and income, precisely as in the instance of dazes in export, investing or independent ingestion. In more microeconomic footings, public outgo may be directed to consumer goods and therefore utility households ‘ outgo, as with the instance of wellness drugs. By contrast, in other instances, as with instruction, public outgo may trip farther ingestion ( books and all the other goods whose ingestion depend on civilization degrees ) .

Harmonizing to World Bank ( 2006 ) , gross domestic merchandise is the amount of gross value added by all resident manufacturers in the economic system plus any merchandise revenue enhancements ( fewer subsidies ) non included in the rating of end product. It is calculated without subtracting for depreciation of fancied capital assets or for depletion and debasement of natural resources.

1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

An economic system ‘s growing is measured by the alteration in the volume of its end product or in the existent incomes of its occupants ( World Bank, 2006 ) . Therefore, oil exportation states are said to see growing due to big inflow of income or gross derived from exports and an chance to increase public disbursement, but most oil exporting states have hapless public sector direction, that is, they have had trouble pull offing financess with stiff operational regulations, as tensenesss have frequently surfaced in state of affairss of important exogenic alterations or with shifting policy precedences. Allowing the resources of oil financess for specific utilizations, and leting excess budgetary disbursement by the financess can perplex financial and plus direction and cut down efficiency in the allotment of resources. Transparency and answerability patterns for financess differ across Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC ) ( International Monetary Fund, 2007 ) . This leads to fall dorsums in the existent gross domestic income.

This research hopes to demo the relationship between gross from oil exports, overall outgo and alterations in end product degrees in Nigeria.

1.3 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The range of the survey is on the economic public presentation of Nigeria. The information used will be obtained from the publication of statistical bulletin of Central Bank of Nigeria ( CBN ) , International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) , and Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC ) . It covers the GDP relation to oil exports, public outgo rates and value of oil exports.

1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS

In the visible radiation of the above, this survey is set to supply solutions to the undermentioned jobs: what is the relationship between oil gross and authorities outgo, what is the relationship between oil gross and economic public presentation, and does the manner authorities spends affect the growing degree of the state.

1.5 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The chief aim of the survey is to demo interrelatedness between public outgo, oil gross and economic public presentation in Nigeria. The specific aims are to:

1. Investigate the effects of oil grosss to the public presentation of an economic system ;
2. Highlight the relationship between oil grosss and public outgos ; and
3. Show the significance of increasing public outgos to growing of an economic system.

1.6 RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

In line with the aims stated above, the undermentioned hypothesis shall be tested:

H0: there is no important relationship between oil gross and economic growing

H1: there is a important relationship between oil gross and economic growing

H0: there is no important relationship between authorities outgo and economic growing

H1: there is a important relationship between authorities outgo and economic growing

1.7 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

This survey is really of import and paramount because of the importance of the capable affair on explicating the determiners of economic growing and development in Nigeria.

1.8 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The survey focuses on the relationship between oil gross, public outgo and economic public presentation in Nigeria and due to the nature of the survey, secondary informations will be used. To transport out an econometric analysis of the survey, the Ordinary Least Square ( OLS ) gauging techniques will be used because it possesses a alone belongings of Best Linear Unbiased Estimator ( BLUE ) when compared to other gauging techniques. The OLS method besides possesses the desirable belongingss of un-biasness, consistence, and efficiency.

Other parametric trials ( such as T-test, F-Test, Durbin-Watson, and others ) would besides be engaged as research instruments in supplying elaborate accounts to the consequences obtained with regard to the hypotheses afore stated.

1.9 Beginnings OF DATA

As a consequence of the format of the research work, secondary informations will be used. The information will be obtained from publications of International Monetary Fund, World Bank Development Data centre, Statistical information of Cardinal Banks, OPEC.

1.10 DEFINITION OF SOME TERMS

Gross domestic merchandise ( GDP ) : the amount of gross value added by all resident manufacturers in the economic system plus any merchandise revenue enhancements ( less subsidies ) non included in the rating of end product.

International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) : established to advance international pecuniary cooperation, facilitate the enlargement and balanced growing of international trade, and promote exchange rate stableness.

The World Bank: established as a development bank, supplying loans, policy advice, proficient aid, and cognition sharing services to low- and middle-income states to cut down poorness.

Public Outgo: is the value of goods and services bought by the State and its articulations.

Chapter TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction

The aim of this chapter is to analyze theoretical and empirical literature on the determiners of economic growing and development in Nigeria through the relationship of oil gross and public outgo. To this terminal, the remainder of this chapter is organized as follows: Section 2.2 focal points on the relationship between public outgo, oil gross and economic growing in other states, such as, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. Section 2.3 focal points on the relationship between public outgo, oil gross and economic growing in Nigeria.

2.2 PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, OIL REVENUE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN OTHER COUNTRIES

Gulf Cooperation Council ( GCC ) states have systematically recorded overall financial shortages since the early 1980s after oil monetary values peaked in 1979-81. In add-on, with oil gross accounting for about three-fourthss of authorities gross in most of these states, fluctuations in rough oil monetary values have led to volatile gross and swings in disbursement.

Following the crisp addition in planetary oil monetary values in the 1970s and early 1980s, authorities disbursement in all these states rose every bit fast as oil gross through a monolithic public investing plan in substructure, financial inducements to develop the industrial sector, and the acceptance of a generous public assistance system. The being of big foreign official assets facilitated a comparatively low degree of accommodation in disbursement in the period 1980-86, when petroleum oil monetary values declined significantly.

Concerns for prolonging domestic demand in order to stave off a crisp decrease in non-oil growing has normally militated against important financial accommodation in the face of falling oil monetary values in GCC states. Spending was merely cut by the equivalent to about half the autumn in entire gross in Saudi Arabia, 20 per centum in the United Arab Emirates, and 10 per centum in Qatar. Facilitated by the completion of major substructure investings, the cutbacks fell largely on spendings for undertakings, while current outgo rose in all these states, except in Saudi Arabia. In Bahrain and Kuwait, passing continued to lift across the board. In contrast, in Oman, lower oil gross was more than offset by higher investing income and fees and charges, taking to a farther addition in outgo in the period.

Harmonizing to Elhiraika and Hamed ( 2001 ) , economic growing and development in the United Arab Emirate is as a consequence of authorities investing in physical and societal substructure which helped to hike economic activity in general and private investing in specific, a stable macroeconomic environment, which is characterized by low rising prices rates and semi-fixed exchange rate, and authorities policies, handiness of capital and absence of limitations on capital motion together with a high grade of openness opened the door for singular growing in foreign trade.

With widely fluctuating and by and large worsening oil monetary values and grosss in the last two decennaries, the state has since the mid 1980s exerted noteworthy attempts aimed at accomplishing economic variegation. These attempts have led to sustained investing in the non-oil sectors, particularly in fabrication and other sectors that are progressively dominated by private capital. By the bend of the 1990s, non-oil exports and non-oil GDP have exceeded their several oil opposite numbers for the first clip since the oil development began. As a consequence, the UAE economic system has been late classified as the most comparatively good diversified economic system in the gulf part ( Askari and Jaber, 1999 ) with an mean existent GDP growing rate of about 5 % for the period 1975-1999.

The period from the mid 1970s to the early 1980s was characterized by high growing public presentation. This was the period when the authorities directed the excesss from high oil monetary values into the physical and societal substructure. The period from around mid 1980s witnessed important decrease in economic growing due to a crisp bead in oil monetary values. Subsequent authorities asceticism steps were directed mostly toward capital outgo for two grounds. First, most of the basic substructure undertakings had by so been completed, and 2nd, most of the current outgo classs have become long term committednesss.

The gross domestic investing rate was 34.1 % in the 1970s period, declined to 25.6 % in the 1980s before lifting to 29.5 % in the 1990s period. The UAE mean growing rate for the whole period is good above that achieved by other Gulf Cooperation Council states. A noteworthy facet of domestic investing is the fact that although public investing continues to rule, the portion of private investing has by and large been lifting unusually, particularly in the 1990s period. Private investing rose from 6.6 % of GDP in the 1975-85 period to 11.7 % in 1996-98.

Meanwhile, the portion of crude oil investing in aggregative investing declined from the norm of 36 % in 1975-89 to 17.7 % in 1990-98. While public investing is concentrated on substructure and services sector, most of private investing is in the services and existent estate sectors. In explicating the private investing behaviour in the UAE, Elhiraika and Hamed ( 2001:13 ) found that in the long-term, GDP has the largest stimulating influence, followed by bank recognition to the private sector and a human capital development variable. The existent loaning rate and authorities investings are found to hold strong but inauspicious effects on private investing. In the short-run, GDP, bank recognition and investing in human capital still have positive but weak effects on private investing behaviour, whereas the loaning rate and authorities investing variables still have important negative coefficients. The enlargement of private investing, both domestic and foreign, is supported by the creative activity of industrial zones that provide a assortment of installations and services at attractive monetary values.

Crisp rises in non-oil exports that jumped from the norm of 19.8 % of entire exports in 1975-1985 to 61.5 % in 1996-1998. By 1992, non-oil exports exceeded oil exports for the first clip amounting to about 40 % of GDP. The additions in exports are chiefly due to re-export. The UAE is the 3rd largest re-export centre in the universe, after Singapore and Hong Kong. Again broad trade, absence of capital controls, exchange rate policy, low duty rates and absence of income revenue enhancements may be considered as the major factors lending to the enlargement of the non-oil export sector. A major failing of the non-oil export sector is the laterality of re-exports over exports. This reflects a instead weak domestic production base than what the tendency of entire exports suggests. Between 1982 and 1999, re-exports accounted for about 88 % of entire exports. The re-export sector is expected to confront ferocious competition from the free trade zones that are quickly developing in the part, particularly in Oman that has a comparative advantage in footings of holding havens that are closer to major sea paths. Therefore, sustainable growing in the no-oil export sector would necessitate increased domestic production of export goods. Increased investing in human capital has led to noteworthy additions in the primary and secondary school registration ratios, from less than 40 % in the 1970s to about 80 % in the 1990s. Besides the increased instruction of the local labour force, educated foreign labour is easy accessible given the comparatively high rewards paid in the UAE compared to other labour excess states in the Middle East and Asia. Immigrant labour histories for approximately 70 % of the labour force in the state and are by and large better educated than the local population.

In malice of high fluctuations in oil monetary value and gross that lead to similar, though smaller fluctuations in existent GDP, the UAE economic system remained unusually stable in footings of rising prices rates and the exchange rate. Since 1981, the UAE dirham has been to the full pegged to the US $ at the rate of 3.67 and the rising prices rate ne’er exceeded the norm of 2.5 % over the period considered. It is believed that because oil is priced in US dollars and because the UAE has immense investings in the US the benefits from the nog in footings of economic stableness and decreased macroeconomic uncertainness is greater than the cost originating from inability to utilize exchange rate policy to advance domestic investing and international fight. There is no difficult statistics to back up or contradict this statement. Since the bend of the 1990s, the amalgamate budget ( including the federal authorities and emirates authoritiess ) has experienced sustained shortages.

Harmonizing to Hamed and Elhiraika ( 2001 ) , The UAE authorities does non trust on financial policy tools in accomplishing macroeconomic stableness. Rather it relies chiefly on pecuniary policy tools, peculiarly the nexus between the Dirham and the U.S. dollar, to keep macroeconomic stableness, and that the authoritiess of the dominant emirates finance their budget shortages by pulling down their ain abundant abroad assets, thereby extinguishing inflationary force per unit areas, and avoiding herding out of private sector activities. This suggests the absence of any of import nexus between macroeconomic public presentation and the budget shortages, but authorities disbursement doubtless stimulates private economic activity.

Harmonizing to Siddiqi ( 1999 ) , in Saudi Arabia, the hydrocarbon sector contributes over 40 per centum of the Saudi GDP, and generates 80 per centum of authorities grosss and entire export net incomes severally. The slack in oil grosss – by over a 3rd in 1998 – has led to ballooning duplicate shortages on the balance of payments and budget, amid a general lag in authorities and consumer disbursement, every bit good as falls in fixed investing in the non-oil private sector. The economic system, after spread outing in 1996-97, may see a negative growing in nominal GDP for the first clip in five old ages. However, the IMF undertakings a existent GDP growing of 0.4 per centum, compared with 2.7 per centum in 1997. Entire net incomes of Saudi Bankss in the twelvemonth to September rose 11 per centum. This indicates that the concern sector after two old ages of higher liquidness remains in a comparatively sound place. But a sustained weakening of universe oil monetary values will sooner or subsequently have deflationary effects on cardinal economic sub-sectors. The economic system has benefited from a subdued inflationary environment with consumer monetary value additions averaging merely 1.4 per centum yearly from 1990-98. Zero rising prices, projected in 1998, reflects decelerating domestic demand, lower non-fuel trade good monetary values, and inexpensive Asiatic imports. A stable/firmer Saudi Riyal ( SR ) has contained imported rising prices. The Washington-based Petroleum Finance Corporation ( PFC ) undertakings a budget shortage in 1998 of SR50 billion, or 10 per centum of GDP, the highest in a decennary, compared to a depression of SR6 billion in 1997. As a consequence, a mildly tighter financial policy is now in topographic point ; public sector enlisting and wages are frozen and all ministries have been ordered to restrict disbursement by 10 per centum. Some capital undertakings and military programmes have either been scaled-down or postponed and the payments period on province contracts has been extended to six months. The authorities has implemented steps for covering with gross deficit and to buffer the impact on the land ‘s autochthonal 12 million plus population. Government passing – a cardinal determiner of concern assurance – has been sustained by publishing Saudi Particular Government Bonds ( SSGBs ) , deserving about SR14 billion in the twelvemonth to October. These SSGBs can be sold by contractors to local Bankss at a price reduction. The land ‘s domestic debt, already transcending 100 per cent of GDP, has increased farther because of increasing issue of Development Bonds and Treasury measures chiefly to Bankss and province pension/social security financess. The well-capitalised Saudi banking sector, with a capital plus ratio of 11.4 per centum, is strongly-positioned to run into recognition demands from province and private sectors. Analysts say about SR19 billion of deficit can be covered by domestic adoption and cutting public outgo ( largely on defense mechanism ) .

In Venezuela, the first commercial boring for oil occurred in 1917 and by 1928 ; it was a prima exporter of oil ( United States Library of Congress, 82 ) . During this period Venezuela can be characterized as a absolutism. By 1930, oil represented 90 % of the export gross in Venezuela. In 1948 a 50 per centum royalty rate was introduced. This royalty rate gross was to be used in “ seeding the oil ” to excite agribusiness chiefly and subsequently industry. Prior to oil the java industry had been the chief export in Venezuela. Oil grosss had clearly taken first topographic point in Venezuela nevertheless the state ‘s people remained comparatively hapless. A democratic authorities took power in 1958 and fleetly intervened in the economic system utilizing the oil grosss. In 1960 the authorities made two important motions ; it began to make regional development corporations to deconcentrate planning and it became one of the establishing members of OPEC. Throughout the 1960s Venezuela spent money on instruction, wellness, electricity, portable H2O, and other basic undertakings. This led to a 25 % addition in per capita income by 1973. However when the universe monetary value of oil soared during the 1970ss and so did the Venezuelan authorities ‘s disbursement. In the old ages between 1973 and 1979 the authorities spent more than it had since its independency in 1830. The oil industry was nationalized in 1976. Government passing steadily increased because of increased rushs in oil gross. Negative growing rates characterized Venezuela during 1980-1982. By 1983 oil grosss could no longer back up the disbursement on authorities subsidies, monetary value controls, exchange-rate losingss, and the operations of more than 400 public establishments. In 1983 the authorities attempted to reform the economic downswing through devaluations of the currency and a multi-tier exchange-rate system. However, this did small to procrastinate the at hand crisis and the 50 % decrease in the monetary value of oil in 1986 did nil to assist the state of affairs. In 1989 the IMF stepped in with loans and the monetary value additions related to the reforms necessary for the loans caused rioting and the worst force the state had seen since it became a democracy. The addition in the monetary value of oil in the 1970s caused Venezuela to be affected negatively although its peak oil production point had already been reached in 1970.

Because of the addition in the monetary value of oil the authorities relied wholly on oil gross and like Mexico, was loath to take stairss to forestall a crisis. The IMF had to enforce the additions in domestic monetary values necessary to finish the rhythm that played out. Protectionism through authorities subsidies and passing held domestic monetary values low plenty to stay competitory imports. In this sense Venezuela was get awaying Dutch Disease. However, these monetary values were supported non through true market value but through adoption and excess gross. Equally shortly as those avenues shut down so did the authorities ‘s ability to command domestic monetary values. The sudden leap in monetary values imposed by the IMF caused a recession so terrible that rioting was induced. Another instance of the deficiency of value-added industry creative activity led to the eventual ruin of an economic system given the chance to turn.

Bourguignon and Gelb ( 1988 ) suggest that the stagnancy of the Venezuelan economic system started after 1978, co-occuring with the 2nd oil daze in 1979. Harmonizing to their computations, the non-oil sector did non look to derive from the 1970s windfall. They further argue that inappropriate economic policies resulted in steep diminutions in private investing and monolithic capital flight. Combined with a big rush in ingestion during the decennary of gross windfall, these effects meant that Venezuela was capable to terrible internal and external instabilities that finally lead to its diminution in economic public presentation.

2.3 PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, OIL REVENUE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

Harmonizing to Adedipe ( 2004 ) , by the clip Nigeria became politically independent in October 1960, agribusiness was the dominant sector of the economic system, lending about 70 % of the Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) , using about the same per centum of the working population, and accounting for approximately 90 % of foreign net incomes and Federal Government gross. The early period of post-independence up until mid-1970s saw a rapid growing of industrial capacity and end product, as the part of the fabrication sector to GDP rose from 4.8 % to 8.2 % . This form changed when oil all of a sudden became of strategic importance to the universe economic system through its supply-price link, Crude oil was foremost discovered in commercial measures in Nigeria in 1956, while existent production started in 1958. It became the dominant resource in the mid-1970s. On-shore oil geographic expedition histories for approximately 65 % of entire production and it is found chiefly in the boggy countries of the Niger Delta, while the staying 35 % represents offshore production and involves boring for oil in the deep Waterss of the Continental shelf. Nigeria has proven militias of approximately 32 billion barrels of preponderantly low sulfur light petroleum, which at current rate of development could last another 38 old ages. The purpose is to spread out the militias to 40 billion barrels and production capacity to 4 million barrels per twenty-four hours ( attention deficit disorder ) . The monolithic addition in oil gross as an wake of the Middle-East war of 1973 created unprecedented, unexpected and unplanned wealth for Nigeria. Then began the dramatic displacement of policies from a holistic attack to benchmarking them against the province of the oil sector. Now, in order to do the concern environment conducive for new investings, the authorities began puting the newfound wealth in socio-economic substructure across the state, particularly in the urban countries. As good, the services sector grew. This shows that as authorities increased as a consequence of additions from oil, authorities outgo besides increased.

The Nigerian labor market has been characterized by high rate of unemployment, low pay and hapless on the job conditions. This unwholesome state of affairs evolved after the oil roar of the 1970s and remained so till day of the month. Prior to the oil roar, the Nigerian economic system was mostly agricultural and about 70 % of the working population was engaged in agricultural activities in the rural countries. Wage rates were besides comparable to international criterions and the mean Nigerian worker could afford nice life. In the 1960ies, the accent of employment policies was that of switching labor from the agricultural sector to the fabrication sector. This appeared to be the natural way of economic growing and development, following the experienced of the developed states. However, the Nigerian distinctive features of land term of office system, occupancy and the really fundamental procedures of farming made it highly hard to deploy well beforehand engineering in the sector. Furthermore, at that clip economic policies concentrated more on the development of the fabrication sector, under the much touted “ import-substitution scheme ” . Rather, labour moved from the agricultural sector to the services sector, with small productiveness additions. Both agribusiness and fabrication lost out. The oil roar started the rural-urban impetus of the population, consuming the rural population and adversely impacting agricultural end product. Rising gross profile of Governments created the semblance that occupation creative activity is a primary map of the public sector. Nigerian Governments embarked on ambitious enlargement programmes in secondary and third instruction. Quality research could be conducted, as equal support support was available.

Education was purely treated as a societal service, which should be provided at small or no cost to the donees as a affair of right. This mentality precipitated the crisis of 1978, when the Federal Government introduced tuition fees in its universities. The lessening in oil gross affected support of third instruction, asking a policy displacement that has been hard for the operators of the system to come to footings with. Attempts to raise fees are being resisted, while the private sector funding support that could decrease the load is non forthcoming. In peculiar, the course of study design of many of the establishments is dated and non so relevant to the demands of prospective employers. Most of the merchandises hence, stop up in the labor market and have trouble procuring occupations because they need farther preparation to be able to suit decently into the corporate universe. The weak economic system itself choked out several concern endeavors and curtailed employment chances. Staff retrenchment became permeant, get downing foremost in the private sector and subsequently the populace sector.

Chapter THREE

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGY

3.1 Introduction

In old chapters of this survey, we looked at how the relationship between public outgo and oil gross impact growing in Nigeria and other oil exporting states. Based on these reappraisals, one would cognize the degree of importance attached to them, being an of import macroeconomic issue that affects the gait of growing and development of an economic system.

Therefore, in this chapter of the survey, we shall be looking at the assorted theories of the capable affair as propounded by different schools of idea. We shall be puting oil gross and public outgo in a functional relationship to see their degree of significance to economic public presentation of Nigeria. To this terminal, this chapter is divided into the undermentioned subdivisions. Section 3.1 is the introductory portion while 3.2 focal points on the theoretical background, 3.3 focal points on methodological analysis while 3.4 is concerned with the beginnings of informations and the type of informations used in the survey. Section 3.5 is concerned with the appraisal technique of the theoretical account that shall be stated in the survey.

3.2 THEORETICAL BACKGROUND

In this portion three different theoretical accounts of economic growing will be introduced, Solow ‘s neo-classical theory, endogenous growing theoretical account and Harrod-Domar theoretical account.

3.2.1 Solow ‘s Neo-classical Theory

The Solow theory believes that a sustained addition in capital investing increases the growing rate merely temporarily: because the ratio of capital to labor goes up ( i.e. there is more capital available for each worker to utilize ) . However, the fringy merchandise of extra units of capital is assumed to worsen and therefore an economic system finally moves back to a long-run growing way, with existent GDP turning at the same rate as the growing of the work force plus a factor to reflect bettering productiveness.

The Solow Growth Model is the most celebrated neoclassical growing theoretical account and is the most common get downing point for any analysis of growing in a state. It treats technological growing every bit good as the rate of nest eggs in a state as exogenic ( i.e. , determined outside the system ) . It features both labour and capital as the factors of production, and assumes changeless returns to scale ( CRS ) in both factors. This is an of import premise ; it means that if capital and labour are doubled as inputs, end product will besides double. The Solow theoretical account is a dynamic theoretical account that predicts convergence in the long tally to a steady province rate of growing for a state. To understand this theoretical account, it is simplest to see it in graphical signifier.

Below is a graphical representation that plots capital per worker ( K ) on the horizontal axis and end product per worker ( y ) on the perpendicular axis. An of import premise of the Solow theoretical account is that there are decreasing returns to production, and therefore the production map y=f ( K ) is concave diagrammatically.

Note that

y=Y/AL, k=K/AL,

where A=exogenous engineering parametric quantity, L=labor, K=capital and Y=output. Thus, when capital ( K ) and end product ( Y ) are divided by engineering ( A ) times labour ( L ) , it puts these footings into capital per ‘effective worker ‘ or end product per ‘effective worker ‘ , where ‘effective worker ‘ merely takes into history the degree of engineering or cognition available to a worker.

In the Solow theoretical account, population is allowed to turn over clip at rate Ns, and capital is assumed to deprecate at rate d. If we assume n and vitamin D are changeless, we can build the consecutive line ( n+d ) K in the graph. This represents the “ break-even ” rate of investing, where if capital is replaced at a rate that equals growing in population plus the rate of depreciation of capital, capital per effectual worker will stay changeless. Please note that since technological growing is exogenic to this theoretical account, for now we are presuming that it is non altering.

However, if we wanted to let for exogenic technological growing at changeless rate g, our “ breakeven ” investing rate would be ( n+g+d ) K alternatively of ( n+d ) k. Finally, the nest eggs rate of an economic system is s. Therefore, the green “ sy ” curve on the graph represents the nest eggs curve or existent investing, that is, the fraction of end product Ys that is saved and invested back into the economic system. Now, allow ‘s state an economic system starts out at end product degree y1 with corresponding capital per worker degree of k1. Then since sy & gt ; ( n+d ) K at this degree of end product, the rate of nest eggs is greater than the rate of breakeven investing, and so capital per worker will needfully increase. This will force the sum of capital per worker to the right, until sy= ( n+d ) K, at point A, which is called the “ steady province ” .

Alternatively, if an economic system starts out at a degree of capital per worker such as K2, where sy

This theoretical account therefore predicts that a state will stop up at its “ steady province ” degree of capital per worker and end product per worker, where its rate of nest eggs peers its “ breakeven ” investing rate ( which is merely equal to its rate of population growing plus its rate of capital depreciation, plus the rate of technological alteration g if we allow for engineering to turn over clip ) .

This implies that in the long tally, end product per worker is changeless and a state will meet to its ain equilibrium rate of growing, which is a map of the rate of technological alteration in the state every bit good as the rate of population growing.

Figure: Solow Growth Model

3.2.2 Endogenous growing theoretical account

Endogenous growing theory highlights the fact for productiveness to increase, the labour force must continuously be provided with more resources. Resources in this instance include physical capital, human capital and cognition capital ( engineering ) . Therefore, growing is driven by accretion of the factors of production while accretion in bend is the consequence of investing in the private sector. This implies that the lone manner a authorities can impact economic growing, at least in the long tally, is via its impact on investings in capital, instruction and research and development ( R & A ; D ) . Decrease of growing in these theoretical accounts occurs when public outgo deters investings by making revenue enhancement cuneuss beyond what is necessary to finance their investings or taking away the inducements to salvage and roll up capital.

Romer ( 1986 ) assumes that the creative activity of cognition is a side merchandise of investing. He takes cognition as input in the production map of the undermentioned signifier

Y=ARF ( Ri, Ki, Li )

Where Y =aggregate end product ; =public stock of cognition from research and development ; ; Ri is the stock of consequences from outgo on research and development by house I ; and Ki and I are capital stock and labour stock of house I severally.

Romer uses three elements in his theoretical account, viz. outwardnesss, increasing returns in the production of end product and decreasing returns in the production of new cognition. It is the spillovers from research attempts by a house leads to the creative activity of new cognition by other houses.

Romer ( 1990 ) says human capital along with the bing stock of cognition green goodss thoughts or new cognition. These thoughts relate to improved designs for the production of manufacturer lasting goods for concluding production. This is explained in the undermentioned technological production map,

? A=F ( KA, HA, A )

Where? A is the increasing engineering, KA is the sum of capital invested in bring forthing the new design ( or engineering ) , HA is the sum of human capital ( labor ) employed in research and development of the new design, A is the bing engineering of designs, and F is the production map for engineering. The production map shows that engineering is endogenous when more human capital is employed for research and development of new designs, so engineering additions by a larger sum that is, ? A is greater. If more capital is invested in research research labs and equipment to contrive the new design, so engineering besides increases by a larger sum that is, ? A is more. Further, the bing engineering, A besides leads to the production of new engineering? A. Thus the production of new engineering ( cognition ) can be increased through the usage of physical capital, human capital and bing engineering. The endogenous growing theoretical accounts suggest that convergence would non happen at all chiefly due to the fact that there are increasing returns to scale.

3.2.3 Harrod-Domar theoretical account

This theoretical account stresses the importance of nest eggs and engineering as determiners of growing.

It makes the undermentioned premises:

1. The economic system is closed ;
2. Capital & A ; labour are used in fixed proportions in production ;
3. Changeless returns to graduated table ;
4. For engineering, there exists a fixed capital ( K ) demand per unit end product. Specifically, the degree of capital K needed to bring forth end product Y is given by the equation K = Kentucky where K is called the capital-output ratio ( ICOR ) ;
5. Savingss is additive in income ( S = sY ) , where s is the nest eggs rate ; and
6. Investing is wholly determined by nest eggs I = ? K = S ;

These premises yield the undermentioned solution:

? Y = ? Y/Y = ( 1/k ) ( ? K/Y ) = ( 1/k ) ( S/Y ) = s/k.

Therefore, to acquire high growing, need either:

1. A high nest egg rate s.
2. A low K ( implies high productiveness ) .

This theoretical account is chiefly focused on the function that capital dramas in advancing economic growing. Thus, small is said about how labour or additions in labour productiveness affect growing. Furthermore, it does non explicitly include engineering growing as a factor that explains economic growing. It should hence come as small surprise that this theoretical account behaves ill when taken to the information. That is, the anticipations this theoretical account makes are non supported by informations from states

3.3 METHODOLOGY

3.3.1 Model Specification

In this survey, a theoretical account shall be examined on the footing of empirical findings and theories and is grounded on the endogenous growing theory. The theoretical account examined was based on the work of Romer ( 1986 ) :

Y=ARF ( Ri, Ki, Li ) … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … ( 1 )

The theoretical account specifies economic public presentation as growing rate in existent GDP as a map of the stock of consequences from outgo on research and development by house I ( Ri ) and capital stock and labour stock of house I ( Ki and I ) severally.

The theoretical account examines the effects of authorities outgo on economic growing and so authorities outgo will be divided into productive that is, investing authorities outgo ( Ig ) and unproductive that is, consumption authorities outgo ( Cg ) , public outgo on human capital ( Hg ) will be used to stand for outgo on research and development ( Ri ) .

Y=f ( Ki, Li, Ig, Cg, Hg ) … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … . ( 2 )

Contending a additive relationship between Y and the different account variables, the theoretical account becomes:

Y= & A ; szlig ; 0+ & A ; szlig ; 1Ki+ & A ; szlig ; 2Li+ & A ; szlig ; 3Ig+ & A ; szlig ; 4Cg+ & A ; szlig ; 5Hg+ ? … … … … … … … … … … … … … … . , … . ( 3 )

Adopting a log-linear specification, taking the natural logarithm of the independent variables and presuming one-dimensionality among the variables gives:

Y= & A ; szlig ; 0+ & A ; szlig ; 1LOGKi+ & A ; szlig ; 2LOGLi+ & A ; szlig ; 3LOGIg+ & A ; szlig ; 4LOGCg+ & A ; szlig ; 5LOGHg+ ? … … … … … … … … ( 4 )

Such that

& A ; szlig ; 1 & gt ; 0, & A ; szlig ; 2 & gt ; 0, & A ; szlig ; 3 & gt ; 0, & A ; szlig ; 4 & lt ; 0, & A ; szlig ; 5 & gt ; 0

where:

& A ; szlig ; 1 to & A ; szlig ; 5 represent the incline coefficients

& A ; szlig ; 0 is the intercept

? is the stochastic perturbation term or mistake term

Government Investment outgo ( Ig ) is proxied by authorities entire capital/development outgo and is positively related to economic growing such that a unit alteration in it and keeping all other independent variables in the theoretical account changeless causes a plus one unit alteration in economic growing. Government ingestion outgo ( Cg ) is measured by authorities recurrent outgo less outgo on wellness and instruction and is negatively related to economic growing such that a unit alteration in it keeping all other independent variables changeless causes a less than one unit alteration in economic growing. Outgo on human capital ( Hg ) is therefore measured by the sum of Health and Education disbursement and is positively related to economic growing such that a unit alteration in it keeping all other independent variable changeless causes a plus one unit alteration in economic growing. Capital stock ( Ki ) and Labour stock ( Li ) is positively related to economic growing such that unit alterations in them causes a plus one unit alteration in economic growing.

Oil gross is non included in the theoretical account because it already affects authorities disbursement and so has a positive impact on it.

3.4 SOURCES AND DESCRIPTION OF DATA

The type of informations used in this survey is one-year clip series informations of Nigeria and covers the period ( 1981-2005 ) . It will be obtained from publication of statistical bulletin of Central Bank of Nigeria. Secondary information is used because it is readily available.

3.5 METHOD OF ESTIMATION AND ANALYSIS

To transport out the econometric analysis of the survey, the Ordinary Least Square ( OLS ) gauging techniques will be used because it possesses a alone belongings of Best Linear Unbiased Estimator ( BLUE ) when compared to other gauging techniques. The OLS method besides possesses the desirable belongingss of un-biasness, consistence, and efficiency.

Other parametric trials ( such as T-test, F-Test, Durbin-Watson, and others ) would besides be engaged as research instruments in supplying elaborate accounts to the consequences obtained with regard to the hypotheses afore stated.

The standards for determination devising utilizing these methods are described therefore:

T-test is a trial of the single significance of a parametric quantity estimation e.g. & A ; szlig ; I. It is a technique which could be used under two conditions, including: the sample is little. In other words when N which is the entire figure of elements is less than 30 and the population of the parametric quantities is normal. Here, the t-value trial of significance is used. To prove for the significance of the estimation at a degree of significance the t-value is compared alongside the critical or table t-value. If the computed t-value is greater than the table t-value, the void hypothesis is rejected, in which instance the parametric quantity estimation is statistically important. However, if the t-value is less than the table-t, the void hypothesis is non rejected which indicates that the parametric quantity estimation is statistically undistinguished.

F-test is a trial statistic used to prove the overall significance of a theoretical account. It tests jointly each of the single parametric quantity of estimation. In this instance the F-value is computed. Thereafter, it is compared with the table-F at a degree of significance and at n-1 grade of freedom. If the computed f-value is greater than the table F, so the void hypothesis is rejected. This indicates that the theoretical account is statistically important. However, if the computed F-value is less than that of the tabular array F, the void hypothesis is non rejected signifying that the theoretical account is statistically undistinguished.

The Durbin -Watson Statistics is used to prove for the presence of first order positive or negative consecutive correlativity. The DW Statistics as it is besides known can be used under the undermentioned conditions:

I ) The arrested development theoretical account must include an intercept term

two ) The explanatory x variable must be non-stochastic, i.e. must be fixed in perennial sampling.

three ) The stochastic perturbation term must be generated from the first order car regressive strategy.

four ) The DW trial is non applicable to car regressive theoretical accounts.

V ) There must be no losing observation in our informations.

In the calculation of the D-W Statistics, there is a alone critical value that will take to the credence or rejection of the void hypothesis, which says that there is no first order consecutive correlativity in the perturbation.

Durbin and Watson derived a lower edge and an upper edge bound i.e. ( deciliter and dU ) severally. Such that if the computed Durbin-Watson value lies outside the critical part, a determination can be made sing the presence of positive or negative car correlativity.

Chapter FOUR

ESTIMATION AND RESULTS

4.1 Introduction

In this chapter, I interpreted and analyzed the arrested development consequences that test for the relationship between public outgo, oil gross and economic growing in the Nigerian economic system. All the variables are based on the period 1981-2005 which is a period long plenty to enable us derive statistically consistent consequences to do proper readings and recommendations that can be helpful to the reader for cognition, and other mediators for proper determination devising and the authorities for national planning, proper execution and effectual financial policies reforms for the Nigerian economic system.

4.2 PRESENTATION OF REGRESSION RESULTS

4.3 DISCUSSION OF RESULTS

The inside informations of the readings of the assorted trials shall be examined one after the other: From Table 4.2, the R-squared was 71.85 per centum, which implied that about 71.85 per centum of the entire fluctuation in the dependant variable was explained by the independent variables, while the staying 27.15 per centum could be attributed to the error term. The adjusted R-Squared was used to rectify for the job of R-squared since it does non take into history grade of freedom. Adjusted R-Squared Tells us that about 66.23 per centum of the fluctuations in the independent variables and 33.77 per centum was left unaccounted for and could be attributed to error term. The ascertained F-statistic of 12.76477 shows that the full incline co-efficient was found to be jointly significantly different from nothing ( 0 ) at the degree of 5 per centum. The D-W value of 1.312964 is an indicant that there is auto-correlation.

Table 4.3 shows the rectification for auto-correlation made utilizing Cochrane-orcutt method of arrested development which showed DW-stat to be 2.148679. This showed the new R-squared as 76.46 per centum, which implied that about 76.46 per centum fluctuation in the dependant variable was explained by the independent variables, while the staying 23.54 per centum could be attributed to the error term. The adjusted R-squared was 69.92 per centum that is fluctuation in the independent variables and 30.08 per centum was left unaccounted for and could be attributed to the error term. The ascertained F-statistic of 12.76477 shows that the full incline co-efficient was found to be jointly significantly different from nothing ( 0 ) . Hence, we conclude that our theoretical account has a high explanatory power.

The consequences obtained from the Cochrane-orcutt method of appraisal showed that all of the parametric quantities except oil gross and authorities ingestion outgo conform to apriori specification.

4.4 Testing OF HYPOTHESIS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF FINDINGS

From the consequence, OIL which captured oil gross was negatively related to economic growing, this is in contradiction to our apriori. So a unit addition in oil gross reduces economic growing by 0.012 units. Following the deliberate t-statistics value in comparing to the critical value at 5 percent degree of significance, the deliberate t-statistics ( 0.1213 ) was less than the critical t-statistics value ( 1.711 ) , we accepted the void hypothesis and concluded that oil gross has had no important consequence on economic growing in Nigeria between 1981 and 2005.

From the consequence, IG which captured authorities investing outgo was positively related to economic growing so a unit alteration in authorities investing outgo increases economic growing by 0.148 units. With regard to authorities investing outgo, the deliberate t-statistics ( 0.6174 ) was less than the critical t-statistics value ( 1.711 ) at 5 percent degree of significance, we accepted the void hypothesis and concluded that authorities investing outgo was non important and has had no consequence on economic growing in Nigeria between 1981 and 2005.

From the consequence, CG which captured authorities ingestion outgo was positively related to economic growing, this is in contradiction to our apriori. So a unit alteration in authorities ingestion outgo increases economic growing by 1.684 units. The ascertained t-statistics ( 1.7347 ) was greater than the critical t-statistics value ( 1.711 ) at 5 percent degree of significance. Therefore, we accepted the alternate hypothesis and concluded that authorities ingestion outgo has had a important consequence on economic growing in Nigeria between 1981 and 2005.

From the consequence, HG which captured authorities outgo on human capital was positively related to economic growing so a unit addition in authorities outgo on human capital additions economic growing by 0.346 units. The deliberate t-statistics value ( 0.802 ) was less than the critical t-statistics value ( 1.711 ) at 5 percent degree of significance. Therefore, we accepted the void hypothesis and concluded that authorities outgo on human capital has had no consequence on economic growing in Nigeria between 1981 and 2005.

Chapter FIVE

SUMMARY, RCOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION

5.1 SUMMARY OF WORK

The survey focuses on demoing the interrelatedness between public outgo, oil gross and economic public presentation in Nigeria and covers a period of 24 old ages ( 1981-2005 ) . This survey started with chapter one which comprises the background of the survey, the statement of the job of the capable affair, aims, hypothesis, range and restriction of the survey. Chapter two addresses the literature reappraisal of assorted theoretical and empirical literatures on the determiners of economic growing and development in Nigeria through the relationship of oil gross and public outgo. In chapter three, we looked at the assorted theories of the capable affair as propounded by different schools of idea viz. , Solow ‘s neo-classical theory, endogenous growing theoretical account and Harrod-Domar theoretical account. A theoretical account which expresses authorities investing outgo, authorities ingestion outgo, authorities outgo on human capital and oil gross as determiners of economic growing was estimated utilizing the Ordinary Least Square ( OLS ) utilizing clip series one-year informations for the period of 1981-2005. The consequence indicated that there exists a positive relationship between authorities investing outgo, authorities outgo on human capital and authorities ingestion outgo while there is a negative relationship between oil gross and economic growing.

5.2 Findingss

The chief aim of the survey was to demo the interrelatedness between public outgo, oil gross and economic public presentation in Nigeria. Gross from oil has a negative impact on economic growing and so its increase causes a decrease in growing of the economic system. This could be as consequence in decrease in production of oil overtime, exchange rate volatility, the majority of the gross gotten from oil are stolen and so there are no trickledown effects of this on the economic system. Government disbursement on investing goods such as edifice of roads, transit and communicating webs est. has a positive consequence on economic growing, authorities ingestion disbursement has a positive impact on economic growing and authorities outgo on instruction and wellness which constitutes human capital has a positive relationship on economic growing.

5.3 RECOMMENDATIONS

From the survey conducted, it is clear that oil gross is non wholly responsible for the growing in the Nigerian economic system. Government outgo besides plays a critical function in the growing of the Nigerian economic system. This is because the factors that propel growing in an economic system are provided by authorities disbursement such as proviso of electricity, proviso of societal comfortss, security, wellness installations that improves the wellness position of the working population, educational installations which seek to better efficiency of labor. Based on the accounts above, the following shall be recommended:

1. Government should increase disbursement on instruction and wellness because they improve the efficiency of labor.
2. Gross from oil should be used to fund capital undertakings such as edifice of roads, infirmaries, schools and research establishments e.t.c.
3. Government should cut down its ingestion outgo which has a negative consequence on economic growing.
4. Security should be boosted on the high sea where petroleum oil merchandises are being smuggled. This will assist cut down the loss from illegal export of rough oil merchandises.

5.4 Decision

To do Nigeria one of the 20 developed states in 2020, the importance of authorities disbursement on human capital and investing goods can non be overemphasized and the low rate of authorities disbursement on wellness and instruction every bit good as capital undertakings has led to the low rate of growing in the Nigerian economic system. Therefore, more attending has to be directed towards increasing the disbursement on instruction, wellness and capital undertakings. Besides, there must be answerability by the authorities so that ongoing undertakings are carried out efficaciously and cut down corruptness in the populace sector.

5.5 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

The undermentioned restrictions militated against this research:

1. Fiscal restraint
2. Differences in the informations presented by the Central Bank of Nigeria and the National Bureau of Statisticss
3. Appraisal mistakes, which bedevils secondary informations. Therefore, our consequence and decision shall be accurate to the extent of the truth of the informations collected.

5.6 SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER Reading

This survey looked at the interrelatedness between public outgo, oil gross and economic growing in Nigeria ; nevertheless, the consequence is another interesting country that can be looked into.

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