The chief aim of this survey is to look into the determination of workers to choose the early retirement. The survey focuses on the populace sector pension strategy. The simulation technique is used to cipher the societal security benefit at two different ages ; mandatory retirement age and early retirement age. Datas gained from the simulation procedure represent two chief societal security variables, viz. the societal security wealth and societal security accrual. Then, both variables will be estimated together with other explanatory variables such as matrimonial position, sex, instruction degree, experience and age utilizing logistic method to analyze its relationship with early retirement determination. The consequences show that the permutation consequence of public sector pension strategy is more dominant than income consequence. The findings of this survey concludes ; public sector pension strategy fails to promote public workers to settle for early retirement and therefore it is non capable of going a policy instrument to downsize the populace sector work force and unable to make occupation vacancies.
The chief aim of this survey is to look into the determination of workers to choose the early retirement. The survey focuses on the populace sector pension strategy. The simulation technique is used to cipher the societal security benefit at two different ages ; mandatory retirement age and early retirement age. Datas gained from the simulation procedure represent two chief societal security variables, viz. the societal security wealth and societal security accrual. Then, both variables will be estimated together with other explanatory variables such as matrimonial position, sex, instruction degree, experience and age utilizing logistic method to analyze its relationship with early retirement determination. The consequences show that the permutation consequence of public sector pension strategy is more dominant than income consequence. The findings of this survey concludes ; public sector pension strategy fails to promote public workers to settle for early retirement and therefore it is non capable of going a policy instrument to downsize the populace sector work force and unable to make occupation vacancies.
Keywords: J26 – Retirement ; Retirement Policies, H55 – Social Security and Public Pensions
This survey looks at the early retirement phenomenon in Malaysia, concentrating on the function of societal security such as the pension strategy as a factor that encourages early retirement. The survey on the impact of societal security on retirement has been conducted in many developed states like United States of America ( Ippolito 1990 ; Gruber & A ; Wise 1998 ; Coile & A ; Gruber 2000 ; Coile 2003 ) , France ( Burricand & A ; Sedillot 2001 ) , Denmark ( Anne Moller et Al. 2001 ) and Switzerland ( Gaillard et al. 2001 ) . All these surveies suggest that societal security may work as a policy tool in promoting early retirement.
Harmonizing to Kasente ( 1998 ) , societal security incorporates all ordinances aimed to procure physical safety and give comprehensive protection to minimise hazards that will consequence persons or group of persons without trusting on external assistance. The persons or group of persons protected includes, among others, the hapless, handicapped, adult females and pensionary. The chief intent is to make protection against any unexpected external fortunes such as old age, hazardous political alterations, economic dazes, wellness complication and decease.
Clearly, the chief purpose of presenting societal security is to guarantee a uninterrupted flow of income for the needy and pensionary. Social security is besides seen as a mechanism to cut down unemployment and to acheive labour market equilibrium. Sala-i-Martin ( 1996 ) proposes that employment should be redistributed from the older coevals to the younger coevals. Greater employment chance for the younger coevals will increase the state productiveness. Hence, the bundle or societal security received can be regraded as the monetary value paid to employees who are ready for retirement. An effectual societal security system can be a fruitful partnerhip of work force. A research conducted by Shesinki ( 1977 ) , Boskin and Hurd ( 1977 ) and Bhattacharya et Al. ( 2001 ) proves that there is a positive relationship between societal security and retirement. Teoritically early retirement is a pick made at a individual ‘s ain will after fullfiling the minimal demand to enable the employee to have his societal security benefit, while the normal retirement is the retirement at the compulsory age ( Gruber & A ; Wise 1998 ; Burricand & A ; Sedillot 2001 ) . The normal retirement age is the compulsory age where he is ‘forced ‘ to retire whether he likes it or non. In France ( Burricand & A ; Sedillot 2001 ) and United States ( Ippolito 1990 ; Gunderson & A ; Riddle 1993 ) the compulsory retirement age is 65 old ages old.
The focal point of this survey is directed towards the public service pension strategy where public officers are given the options for voluntary early retirement. The pension strategy is chosen because the populace sector is the largest employer in Malaysia. Furthermore, the availibility of complete informations enables the survey of this phenomenon. The testing is farther facilitated by the amendment of the Malaysia Pension Scheme in 1991 which allows a public officer to volunteer early retirement on status that he or she is at the age of 40 and has been in service non less than 10 old ages. From another position, this amendment can be seen as an instrument to cut down the size of public sector in peculiar. For the intent of this survey, the early retirement informations will be screened to except samples who retired due to grounds such as unproductive, wellness, denationalization and amalgamations.
Within the model of this survey, the term early retirement includes public officers who are eligible to choose for retirement at the age of 40 and has served non less than ten old ages. All retired persons who fullfilled the stipulated status will be having tip upon retirement. This retirement benefit becomes an of import factor and may function as an alternate replacement of income during the period before having their full pension. Although both retirement schemes widen employment chances, it is unsure in the instance of early retirement. It all depends on single determinations and the cardinal inquiry on the determiners of early retirement. From old surveies, societal security is capable of going the cardinal determiner of early retirement. The program of this documents is as follows, Section 2 presents the societal security model. Section 3 so presents the methodological analysis and informations. Section 4 will discourse the consequences and Section 5 so conclude the treatment.
2. Social Security Framework
In this research, the societal security variable chosen is based on the Option Value Model by Stock and Wise ( 1990 ) . The general thought of Option Value Model suggested by Stock and Wise ( 1990 ) is the comparative public-service corporation received by single at two different periods ; foremost at the early retirement age and the other during mandatory age. In doing determination about retirement, they province that the placeholder for retirement public-service corporation degree is the sum of money received in the period mentioned above.
It is assumed that in period T ( the age before mandatory retirement ) persons decide to retire or to prorogue retirement until the mandatory age. If an single chooses to retire in period T, he will obtain his retirement benefit from twelvemonth T until his decease. The public-service corporation map under the status proposed by Stock and Wise can be written as Equation ( 1 ) :
( 1 )
In Equation ( 1 ) , is the weightage for current income relation to future income and the weightage for the determination to retireis the retirement benefits received if he retires in period t. Specifically, is the ulitity received from the retirement benefits. It is obvious from Equation ( 1 ) , if single retires in period T, he will deduce his public-service corporation entirely from entire retirement benefit obtains from period T until his decease ( T ) .
On the contrary, if an single chooses to go on working until the terminal of period s ( at compulsory age ) , their public-service corporation map can be divided into two chief constituents which are their salary and retirement benefit. During the employment until period s, the person will have a full wage, Y, and after retirement at the terminal of period s, he will bask the retirement benefit, The public-service corporation from salary and retirement benefit are and severally. Under this status, the retirement value map can be written as:
( 2 )
Equation ( 2 ) explains that postponement to retire until mandatory retirement age allows single to bask entire income for the whole period s, ( ) , and entire retirement benefit, upon retiring. The first term in Equation ( 2 ) is the entire income from period T to period s as a consequence of proroguing retirement until period t. The 2nd term of the equation explains the full retirement benefit received from the period the single begins to retire till his life-time. T is the single sum lifetime.
In period T, an person will do an premise that ( Et ( . ) ) is his retirement public-service corporation based on all information available at that point of clip. An person will anticipate his benefits or additions from detaining retirement as shown in Equation ( 3 ) :
Gt ( R ) = EtVt ( R ) – EtVt ( T ) ( 3 )
EtVt ( R ) is the person expected value of public-service corporation from working and unpredictable public-service corporation on the retirement value finction if he chooses to retire at mandatory retirement age. On the other manus, EtVt ( T ) is the person expected value of public-service corporation with current retirement ( period T ) . outlook on the unpredictable public-service corporation if he retires at period t. If the expected public-service corporation obtains upon mandatory retirement is non profitable, single will take to retire early in period t. The consequence can be represented by Gt ( R ) = EtVt ( R ) – EtVt ( T ) a‰¤ 0. If the expected value of retirement public-service corporation between both periods are positive, so the affected person will non retire in period t. Hence, employee will go on functioning if Equation ( 4 ) is fullfilled,
Gt ( r* ) = EtVt ( r* ) – EtVt ( T ) & gt ; 0 ( 4 )
The simulation procedure is performed to acquire the societal security wealth form for each single sample. The procedure is done by sorting samples into two cohorts ; the early retired person and the compulsory retired person. This simulation procedure is important, specifically to calculate the early retired person societal security wealth variable ( ERSSW ) and accrued societal security wealth ( ASSW ) .
3. Methodology and Data
3.1 The Logistic Model Framework
The dependant variable is limited to two values which is 1 ( opt for early retirement ) and 0 ( still employed ) , therefore the most suited method to through empirical observation construe the discreet theoretical account is through the logistic method ( Cramer 1991 ; Cox & A ; Snell 1989 ) which limits the measuring of chance of an event occurence by utilizing Doctor of Optometries log ratio. Cramer ( 1991 ) logistic technique really measures the chance of obtaining value 1 as a successful result. It is known that the dependant variable ( Y ) takes the value of one or eternity. Therefore, any anticipation on the value of Y will take to the chance of obtaining the value of Y peers to one, . The conditional chance that can be formed is as the equation below:
( 5 )
Equation ( 5 ) explains that the appraisal of the chance, , depends on the changeless value ( ) , parameter ( ) and the value of the independent variable ( X ) . These parametric quantity, variables and changeless can take any value, whilst the chance status is 0 1. Hence, additive arrested development is non suited because the value of Y takes merely two values eternity and one. One manner to get the better of the job is to eliminate bounds on the chance ( ) so as non to be restricted to one, which is by looking at the ratio, . Through transmutation, if the chance ( ) approaches one, so the ratio approximates eternity. On the other manus, to transcend the lower bounds of the chance so that it is non restricted to zero, this is done by taking the natural log, log. From the natural log can take any values and therefore, this survey assumes the mistake in consistent to the logistic distribution map.
( 6 )
With
Equation ( 6 ) is the logistic distribution map which states that ( represented by, and X ) can take any value between -a?z to + a?z and takes value between zero and one. However, in Equation ( 6 ) is non additive with variable Ten and the parametric quantity. Hence, through the transmutation log, the Doctor of Optometries ratio obtained will deduce from the logit equation which is the aim of this research. Equation ( 7 ) is the consequence of the transmutation log performed on the Doctor of Optometries ratio and this equation is known as Logit Model.
( 7 )
The logit Model above is non merely linear on variable Ten but is besides additive on parametric quantity ( i?± ) . However, the account on Equation ( 7 ) must be done carefully because the additive relationship shown by the equation is intrinsic. This is because the parametric quantity in Equation ( 7 ) can merely be achieved, foremost by transmutation log. Because the Logit theoretical account has an intrinsic additive feature, hence to gauge I? , the iterative method will be employed until the value of I? which has the highest likeliness is achieved ( maximal likehood method ) .
3.2 Retirement Logistic Model
The retirement logistic Model will be estimated to explicate the behavior of early retired person in Malaysia through Equation ( 8 )
( 8 )
with
= value is 1 if retired early, nothing if still employed
ERSSW= wealth of societal security at early retirement
ASSW = accumulated societal security wealth
SEX = 1 if male, zero if female
MAR = 1 if married, zero if individual
EXP = figure of old ages employed
AGE = age in current twelvemonth
EDU = 1 if has higher instruction ( sheepskin and higher ) , zero if, has lower instruction ( sheepskin and below ) .
= invariable
= coefficient for the explanatory variable – I, i = 1, aˆ¦ , K.
= random mistake
The independent variable, wealth of societal security at early retirement ( ERSSW ) is the sum of money ( entire pension ) received by single who opts for early retirement. Ippolito ( 1998 ) and Baxter ( 2001 ) , highlighted that the sum of money received by individulas who chooses early retirement is reflected in the income consequence of societal security on the determination to retire early.
The coefficient of variable ASSW is the placeholder to the societal security permutation consequence, and this reflects that single chooses mandatory retirement and detain their early retirement. There are two impacts of this determination ; which is the addition in income flows and at the same clip this decreases the figure of old ages he can bask the retirement benefits. Alternatively, this means that the addition in income can merely be enjoyed if single continues to work. As a consequence, the addition in income causes the rise in the monetary value of leisure. When this happens, harmonizing to the jurisprudence of demand, there is a lessening in the demand for leisure. Hence, the variable coefficient ASSW ( increase income ) can be the placeholder to the societal security permutation consequence and when ERSSW increases, employees will choose for early retirement.
3.3 Datas
Datas used in this survey is derived from samples in the Pension Division, Public Service Department ( PSD ) , Malaysia in 2007. From the PSD information system, 2,548 samples were chosen at random and out of that figure, 1,548 persons are still in service and 1,000 are pensioner since 2002. To cipher the income consequence ( proxied as ERSSW ) and permutation consequence ( proxied as ASSW ) , the samples are placed in two different scenarios ; those who retired early and those who retired at the compulsory age, which is 56 old ages old. This classification is of import to enable the computation of the entire tip and pension receivable in both fortunes.
4. Consequences and Discussion
This subdivision discusses on the consequences of the Logit Model appraisal in explicating the behavior of people who retired early represented by the variable specified in Equation ( 8 ) . To do the analysis easier, the consequences of the appraisal on logistic arrested development is tabulated in Table 1. The initial signal in explicating the behavior of retirement picks in Malaysia is the mark of the coefficient ( positive or negative ) . The marks indicate the way of the relationship between all variables in the logistic equation estimated, while the coefficient value known as the partial incline, measures the alterations in early retirement logit for every unit alteration in the explanatory variables.
The Doctor of Optometries ratio for early retirement that explains the relationship between the two variables are besides clarified. Ods ratio measures the alterations in Doctor of Optometries value during an event ( early retirement ) when ith variable alterations. If the Doctor of Optometries ratio is equal to one, the Doctor of Optometries ( leaning ) of early retirement will non alter but if it is more than one, so the early retirement Doctor of Optometries will increase and if it is less than one, it means the Doctor of Optometries for early retirement diminutions.
Table 1: Consequences of the Logistic Regression Estimates
Variables
Hypothesis
Estimated Relationship
Variables
Coefficient
Standard mistake
Doctor of Optometries
ratio
ERSSW
H1
+
0.270
0.025*
1.310
ASSW
H2
–
-0.462
0.058*
0.630
EXP
H3
–
0.143
0.019*
1.154
Sexual activity
H4
–
0.637
0.115*
1.890
Age
H5
+
0.349
0.029*
1.417
EDU
H6
–
-1.023
0.204*
0.360
March
H7
+
0.675
0.162*
1.964
Changeless
-20.317
1.298*
Chi Square
Percentage correct with changeless merely
Percentage correct with all variables
McFadden RA?
Sample size
45.23*
50.0
73.2
0.372
2548
Notes: * important at 0.01 degree
Beginning: Logit theoretical account arrested development consequences
EDU: Education degree
March: Marital position
EXP: Experience in public sector
Sexual activity: Gender
Age: Individual age in sample
ERSSW: Social security wealth received upon early retirement
ASSW: Social security wealth accrual
Two major variables focused in this survey are the societal security wealth variable ( ERSSW ) and societal security accrual wealth ( ASSW ) . These two variables are of import to find the behavior of early retirement and societal security as shown in Table 1. Indirectly, both variables are placeholders to the income consequence and the societal security permutation consequence. When the person decides to retire early, the income consequence is positive whilst the permutation consequence is negative. Social security accumulations or ASSW represents monetary value of leisure because to acquire the accrued sum, person has to let go of their retirement leisure. The net consequence or concluding consequence of the relationship between early retirement and societal security can be determined by detecting which has the strongest consequence, either the income consequence or the permutation consequence.
Table 1 explains the consequences of the appraisals. It was found that the variables ERSSW and ASSW fits into the predicted relationship with early retirement. Both variables ERSSW and ASSW each demoing positive and negative marks with early retirement option, which means any increased in ERSSW will increase the early retirement logit, while the addition in ASSW or the chance cost of leisure will cut down the early retirement logit. This grounds supports hypothesis H1 and H2 which states that the permutation consequence and the income consequence each relates positively and negatively.
The appraisal consequences find that the addition in ERSSW will increase the early retirement Doctor of Optometries ratio but with little factor of 1.31. On the other manus if the ASSW additions by a unit the early retirement leaning will worsen with the factor of 1.58[ 1 ]. From the findings, this survey observed that the permutation consequence is greater than the income consequence of the societal security. The absolute value for ERSSW and ASSW severally is 0.27 and 0.462. This indicates that the chance cost or the monetary value of early retirement for pensionable employees in the populace sector is immense. Empirically, the consequences prove that the bing societal security in Malaysia, in peculiar the pension strategy, does non promote early retirement. Workers particularly the public sector employees will go on employment until they attain the age of mandatory retirement. The proviso under SPP 1991 Bil. 1 which warrants substitution income after retirement is non successful in pulling workers to choose for early retirement.
From the consequences, it can be concluded that Malayan societal security system, in peculiar the public sector pension strategy, has failed to function as an inducement to promote early retirement. Although substituition income is given, it is non strong plenty to actuate public employees to retire early. Hence, the populace sector societal security is non a good pick to be considered in the attempt to accomplish equilibrium in the labor market and to downsize the populace sector. The relationship between societal security and early retirement as depicted in this survey in relation to pension strategy, is found to diverge from the surveies done by Baxter ( 2001 ) , Gruber and Wise ( 1998 ) , Stock and Wise ( 1990 ) and Ippolito ( 1990 ) in United States. They found that societal security and early retirement to be positively related. The divergency between Malaysian and US consequences derives from the fact that societal security informations used in the US has a wider coverage including unemployment insurance and societal public assistance, whereas in the instance of Malaysia, merely pension benefits as portion of societal security is being considered.
As shown in Table 1, other variables that has influenced on the behavior to retire early for illustration experience ( EXP ) , gender ( SEX ) , age ( AGE ) , instruction degree ( EDU ) and matrimonial position ( MAR ) . Variables EXP and AGE show positive way towards the leaning of early retirement. The addition in age and experience will do the leaning of early retirement to lift. For every addition in experience it will take to an addition in early retirement Doctor of Optometries ratio factor of 1.154 and the addition in age causes the early retirement Doctor of Optometries ratio to increase 1.417. In other words, the addition in age and experience addition the early retirement leaning though the rate is little.
Hence, the estimated logistic arrested development consequences for hypothesis H3 ( variable EXP ) is reversed of the predicted relationship. This expected relationship is based on the empirical survey by Blau ( 1994 ) who found that as experience additions, the rate of labour engagement besides increases. The consequences of this survey indicates that the degree of experience is positively related to early retirement though negatively related to manpower. Hence, hypothesis H5 ( hypothesis for variable age ) successfully supports the relationship predicted to be positively related to early retirement. This survey confirms the old empirical survey on variable age such as the one done by Coile dan Gruber ( 2000 ) , Gaillard et Al. ( 2000 ) and Gustman and Steinmeir ( 1986 ) .
For variables SEX, EDU and MAR, they are represented by dummy variables. The variable Sexual activity is given the value one for male respondents and from the consequences we can reason that males will choose for early retirement shown by positive mark on the coeffecient variable for males. Consequences tabulated in Table 1 clarifies that early retirement among males increase about dual ( 1.89 ) compared to females. The findings of this survey at this point differs from Coile ( 2003 ) , Anne Moller et Al. ( 1998 ) , Olsson ( 2000 ) , Boskin and Hurds ( 1978 ) , Honig ( 1998 ) and Gaillard et Al. ( 2001 ) . Hence, hypothesis H4 which predicts that females will retire earlier than adult male, is non supported in this survey.
The relationship of variable Sexual activity can be associated with the principle that male workers find it easier to reenter the labor market as compared to female workers. In other words, if the male worker retires early, comparatively, he would happen it much easier to happen new employment as depicted by consistent male labour force engagement at the rate of 80 per centum from the twelvemonth 1980 to 2000. If he finds that the societal security benefit is deficient to prolong life disbursals after early retirement, he would happen it much easier to take part in the labour market as compared to his female opposite number. Unlike the females, the males have the pick to prosecute in self employment or come in the private sector employment market. Due to this state of affairs, the males leaning to retire early in public sector is higher than females as proven by the empirical consequence of this survey.
The consequences tabulated in Table 1 besides explain the relationship between the variable instruction ( EDU ) and the determination to retire early. It can be concluded that the higher the degree of persons instruction, the more improbable the persons will retire early and therefore the lower the leaning to early retirement. The extremely educated populace sector employees is non inclined to retire early about three times greater ( 1/0.36= 2.777 ) than those who has lower degree of instruction. This consequence supports hypothesis H6 which states that the relationship between early retirement and the degree of instruction is negative. This consequence is more compatible with the findings of surveies done by Blau ( 1994 ) and Ippolito ( 1998 ) instead than analyze done by Baxter ( 2001 ) .
Another interesting determination is the variable on matrimonial position ( MAR ) which shows positive mark with early retirement. Married persons are more inclined to retire early about twice greater than individual employees as shown in the Doctor of Optometries ratio in Table 1 at 1.964. Hence, this survey supports hypothesis H7 which states that married persons are prone to retire early. The research done by Pozzebon and Mitchell ( 1989 ) , McCarty ( 1990 ) , Anne Moller et Al. ( 1998 ) and Olsson ( 2000 ) conclude that early retirement will increase at the same time with matrimony which is through empirical observation congruous with the findings of this survey. The consequences from a survey by Honig ( 1998 ) and Boskin and Hurd ( 1978 ) was rejected. This relationship is further explained utilizing the public-service corporation construct by Stock and Wise ( 1998 ) . Married persons need to apportion clip with their household because clip spent with household besides gives public-service corporation to persons and therefore, the determination to choose for early retirement between the married and individual would really different. Married workers can maximise their public-service corporation by disbursement clip with their household.
Although in general it can be concluded that the benefits of societal security does non promote early retirement, but if each variables is observed separately, it is possible to place which group is more antiphonal towards early retirement. The consequences tabulated in Table 1 proves that the group of workers with lower degree of instruction, married employees, employees with longer period of service, and older employees are more antiphonal towards the determination to choose for early retirement. Any policy alterations to do societal security as an inducement to choose for early retirement must be focused towards the groups identified as holding the highest chance to retire. Concentrating on these focal groups is important to guarantee attempts are directed towards achieiving employment equilibrium via societal security which should work efficaciously and expeditiously.
All the coefficients in the logistic arrested development theoretical account of this research is important at 0.01 or at a assurance degree of 99 per centum, in foretelling the relationship between the tried variables and the determination to retire early. The value of McFadden RA? is 37.2 per centum which can be described as a good estimation for the binary theoretical account such as this survey. This fact is farther strengthened by the right per centum appraisal which was successfully increased from a changeless 50 per centum to 73.2 per centum when all related variable are included. On the other manus, the best fit arrested development with all variables besides recorded a higher value which is I‡A? of 45.225 compared to the agenda value of ( ) of 14.07 All these values proves that the retirement logistic arrested development theoretical account gives a good appraisal of the relationship of all variables and early retirement.
5. Decision
The empirical consequences found that the income consequence of pension strategy benefits is positive on early retirement. On the other manus, permutation consequence on early retirement is negative. Because the permutation consequence is greater than the income consequence, so the concluding impact of the benefit of the populace sector pension strategy on early retirement is negative. This concluding consequence gives an indicant that the bing pension strategy is deficient to actuate public officers to retire early. Strictly talking, although the benefits of the pension strategy ensures a steady income after retirement, the doomed of income due to early retirement is greater and that leads to the determination non to choose for early retirement. The findings has either straight or indirectly take this survey to reason that the retirement option has failed to actuate public officers to retire early. By and large, two chief grounds which form the footing of societal security execution are utility incomes at retirement. Alternate income or fixing for old age income is considered as the basic rule of supplying societal security in a modern economic system. Similarly, this is the same as having wealth or kids which is perceived as one of the elements of societal security for parents during old age which comes in signifiers such as fiscal alleviation, attempt and clip ( Lillard & A ; Willis 1997 ) . Therefore, one of the methods in implementing societal security is by apportioning portion of the current income during employment or at younger age for future ingestion at old age ( Pogue & A ; Sgontz 1977 ; Becker & A ; Murphy 1985 ) .
To reason this survey, it is apparent that the critical issue is related to the age degree of the public officers as a status to measure up for the retirement benefits. Surveies shows that the chance to retire early is higher at the first modification age to have retirement benefits ( 45 for females and 50 for males ) as compared to the chance at early retirement age which is 40 old ages old. This is because early retirement at the measure uping age to have pension can hold an increasing income consequence.
