The World Trade Organization is the lone planetary organisation covering with the regulations of trade between states. From its start to now, the WTO and its predecessor GATT have attracted 155 economic systems fall ining it and no 1 member has exited. China entered into the WTO in 2001. Obviously, holding entree into the WTO is expected to assist the state integrates into the international society faster and better. Thereby, many people expected that fall ining this many-sided organisation will hold a great positive significance for the long-run development of a state. But Rose ( 2004 ) proposed an opposite position that whether a state belongs to the GATT/WTO or non has small dealingss with its trade forms. Therefore, there are progressively bookmans discoursing about this subject. Does WTO truly increase the international trade for China? This paper will utilize a gravitation theoretical account to look into whether China ‘s accession into the WTO truly increases its many-sided trade and which are the chief variables impacting the trade form of a state. Regional Trade Agreement ( RTA ) in this paper is an of import variables added in the gravitation theoretical account to prove bilateral trade.
On the 4th of December, 2011, Cheng Deming, the Chinese Minister of Commerce, made a brief analysis about the reappraisal on the singular accomplishments of China ‘s accession to the WTO for ten old ages on economic development. In his study, after entry into the WTO, China enjoy many cardinal rights of WTO members, having a stable, crystalline, predictable, and non-discriminatory many-sided trading system protection. Clinging to these favourable conditions and trusting on China ‘s ain comparative advantages, China smartly developed international trade and promoted two-way investings. During the past 10 old ages, China ‘s export grew by 4.9 times and imports grew by 4.7times which is the 2nd largest importing state every bit good as the largest exporting state in the universe compared with 10 old ages earlier, when China was non a member of the WTO. Besides, the mean one-year growing rate of foreign investings from 2002 to 2010 is close to 50 per centum increasing a twelvemonth, which is ranked in the first topographic point among developing states sing pulling foreign investings. In a word, China ‘s unfastened economic system developed quickly, which efficaciously promoted the sustained and sound growing of the national economic system. In peculiar, China took a positive and practical attitude in take parting in the Doha Round Negotiations and signed a free trade understanding with a figure of states or brotherhoods to conform to the tendency of regional economic cooperation and development, therefore, lending to the formation of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement ( RTA ) . By the terminal of 2010, China has become the largest trading spouse of Japan, South Korea, ASEAN, Australia, South Africa and the EU ‘s 2nd largest trading spouse and the United States ‘ 3rd largest trading spouse. Additionally, China besides attaches great importance to South-South cooperation and adheres to a peaceable development way to speed up the growth of the South states, supplying whatever fiscal and proficient aid to developing economic systems and working together to make a better hereafter for common prosperity. The active engagement in the international many-sided mechanism, hence, makes China play an progressively important function in the planetary economic system. However, things ever go neither good nor bad. Confronting the mutable international phase, chances and challenges live together. In what follows is a brief reappraisal of challenges met by China.
Weida He ( 2001 ) discusses how can we confront and turn to the serious industrial security jobs after China entry into the WTO, in which he says that China should at first adjust the industry construction and should change over from labour-intensive to technology-intensive to run into the demand of globalisation. Zhan Jing ( 2005 ) gives a farther analysis on following China ‘s agriculture-trade after accession to the WTO and counter steps took by the authorities. Since China ‘s agribusiness was regarded as the weakest industry after entry into the WTO, the dialogues about this country are particularly the most hard. Based on the advantage of inexpensive labour, the job of low quality for most of the China ‘s labour-intensive agricultural merchandises still exists, which makes it hard to run into the demand of the international market. To turn to this issue, China must rush up the edifice of the agricultural merchandises choice criterion system, and bit by bit work out the proficient barriers from rich states. Zhan uses Lan Haitao ‘s ( 2003 ) tendency value comparing method to look into the existent alteration of China ‘s agricultural trade after entry into the WTO. With green barriers progressively strengthened, China ‘s agricultural exports have been earnestly affected. Ma Jinjun ( 2007 ) analyzes the grounds why Chinese agricultural exports encounter the green barriers. Originally, China is a big agricultural state, for which the agricultural exports have been one of the chief beginnings of its export. At the beginning, China is expected to advance export growing with its monetary value advantage and to use the WTO ordinances to cut down limitations on Chinese agricultural merchandises after fall ining the WTO. But for the green barriers, in fact trade shortage for China ‘s agricultural exports even occurs. China ‘s agriculture-trade has been strongly obstructed. Actually, many states, particularly for developing states, would do trade clashs with its trade spouses because of the green barriers in making international concern, and many even turn into a trade war since with intertwined impact among assorted economic systems.
1.2 The Ascent of Trade War Between China and Other States
With the tendency of China ‘s many-sided trade bit by bit going better, many jobs and drawbacks occur. Earlier in 2001, merely before China ‘s at hand accession to the WTO, Japan took exigency import limitations against three sorts of Chinese agricultural merchandises. Thus a trade war between China and Japan broke out. It is obvious that both China and Japan were damaged during that trade war. Harmonizing to Jiang Xiaomei ‘s ( 2001 ) analysis, China non merely reduced the foreign exchange, but besides paid a high cost to set its agricultural industrial export construction. As for Japan, it was estimated that the trade volume of the green onions and other two agricultural merchandises which were exported from China to Japan was 24 billion hankerings, while the Nipponese auto and other industrial goods trade exported to China occupied every bit high as 67.2 billion hankerings. From the information we can gauge that if Japan insisted to restrict imports of Chinese agricultural merchandises, its ain losingss would be greater. That is to state, the trade war non merely destroyed the two states ‘ cardinal involvement but besides damaged the Nipponese economic recovery since 1997.
In fact, the trade war upgraded late old ages, such that the sphere of China ‘s photovoltaic ( PV ) industry bears particularly the brunt. Along with The Solar World subjecting one paper, which requires the application of the anti-dumping probes on Chinese PV merchandises, to the European Union ( EU ) , Chinese PV industry is one time once more jittery since there has been already utmost intuition for this industry. Actually, both sides on trade war make losingss, whatever. With an progressively close nexus among planetary economic system, if one industry undergoes a great turbulency, it is possible to hold a ripple consequence for the other comparative industries. If China ‘s PV merchandises lose the EU market, at least 60 to seventy per centum of the domestic PV industry would be prostration, which will ensue in a mass unemployment in China. Meanwhile, it may ache the import and export of the other industries. Furthermore, the trade war is bound to sabotage the regulations established by the WTO. Since China and the EU are both members of the WTO, a trade war must impact international trade. So, with the escalation of the trade war, whether articulation the WTO will still increase China ‘s international trade? This issue is worthy to be explored.
1.2.1 Deductions From Trade War
From Cheng Deming ‘s study ( 2011 ) , Chinese Minister of Commerce, we can clearly see the enormous accomplishments of China ‘s foreign trade after accession to the WTO. Meanwhile, we besides recognize many jobs in many-sided trade. China chiefly exports primary merchandises to the universe, while it imports cutting-edge engineering from developed states, which makes China endure a disadvantage among international trade. The chief advantage of the huge bulk of the Chinese exports is that they are produced by utilizing inexpensive labour, so that the cost of the same merchandise is greatly reduced compared with that of states. The processing industry in the sou’-east seashore of China develops good and China ‘s exports are chiefly concentrated in this part. However, advantages sometimes change by reversal to disadvantages. If China ‘s merchandises have absolute competitory border in the international market, China may be faced with other states ‘ anti-dumping challenge. Confronting these challenges, China must set the construction of domestic industry, change overing labour-intensive advantage to technology-intensive advantage. Besides, it can besides do attempts in developing Chinese characteristic national industry which means to do its ain merchandises unreplaceable in the international market. Will China ‘s accession to the WTO addition its international trade in the terminal? If YES, what are the factors that affect the international trade? This paper will utilize the standard gravitation theoretical account as a basis, bit by bit adding a assortment of variables that may impact bilateral trade during the arrested development analysis.
1.3 The Baltic Exchange Dry Index ( BDI )
A new position in this paper is that the writer employs a freight fiscal derived function, the Baltic Exchange Dry Index ( BDI ) , as a variable into the gravitation theoretical account to gauge whether it has any relationship with China ‘s international trade after accession into the WTO. To explicate the term of BDI, foremost some information about the transportation market should be introduced. Actually, transportation is a derived demand of international trade. Therefore, it is capable to the national economic development impact. Specifically, it is non merely affected by the economic rhythm, but besides a state ‘s political and natural status altering could convey impact to the transportation market. Thus we can see that transporting market is a great fluctuant market. Particularly in recent old ages along with China ‘s economic development, under the big demand of bulk lading and foreign trade, the “ China factor ” promotes the lifting demand of international seaborne transportation. In 2004, the BDI, which reflects the cargo, reached a new historical high point, every bit good as the transportation hazard is enlarged. However, the derivative market is still a alien for China, therefore it is necessary for this paper to add it to the gravitation theoretical account to gauge its influence to China ‘s international trade since the consequence can be draw on to avoid transportation hazard and obtain transporting market information, which can benefits China ‘s international trade to some extent.
The BDI is a composite leaden index of the BCI, BPI and BHMI indices, which the BCI is short for Baltic ‘s Capesize Index, BPI is the Baltic ‘s Panamax Index and BHMI is the Baltic ‘s Handymax Index and each index histories for one tierce of the BDI weight. The three indices reflect freight monetary value of different degrees of dry majority lading ships. With different ship class, the transporting capacity and cargo of ship varies.
In my position, the BDI is an of import index to analyze the future public presentation and investing value of transporting stocks, every bit good as one of the taking indexs of international trade. It epitomizes the planetary demand for minerals, grain, coal, cement and other primary trade goods. Since China ‘s Fe ore imports accounted for about half of the universe ‘s Fe ore imports, affected by the uncertainness of Chinese Fe ore monetary value dialogues and the U.S. Stocks plunged over the same period in January 2008, the BDI index plummeted which fell to 5,000 points. Therefore, the BDI truly can be regarded as a factor to gauge China ‘s bilateral trade with other states. Besides, BDI is calculated with the topographic point cargo weighted by three chief ship types, therefore, the cargo monetary value degree would be expected to impact the fluctuations of the index. If the cargo monetary value supports high, it could be expected to supply an grounds of the prosperity of transporting market, in other word it can besides reflect the development of the international trade. BDI is published daily by the Baltic Exchange in London, which is non merely an of import footing for monetary value tendency of China Ocean Shipping Company ‘s dry majority transporting stock, but besides an index refers to the non-ferrous metals, coal and other primary manufactured trade goods ‘ stock monetary value motions. The BDI ‘s predecessor BFI began to be published in 1985 and the BDI index replaced the BFI as the most important barometer of the dry majority transporting market in the worldwide since in 1999. In this paper, the BDI will be added in the gravitation theoretical account as a new variable to gauge whether it has any relationship with the bilateral trade between China and its trade spouses.
2. Literature Review ===
Since Rose ( 2004 ) gets an unprecedented determination in his paper Do we truly know that the WTO additions trade? he sets off a brainsick moving ridge in academic. This paper estimates the impact on WTO and its predecessor GATT, and the GSP extended from rich states to developing states utilizing a big panel informations set and a standard gravitation theoretical account to research whether a state ‘s accession into WTO/GATT will increase trade or non. What shocked academe is that his consequence proved that rank of GATT/WTO had small relation with many-sided trade. This questioned many bookmans because most of them expected that the WTO/GATT do truly increase international trade worldwide.
Actually, though Rose proves that states belonging to the GATT/WTO do non merchandise more than states who abstained from rank with a big dataset and the gravitation theoretical account, Tomz, et Al. ( 2007 ) besides make a remark to Rose ‘s “ interesting enigma ” . The writers comment that Rose ‘s consequence is striking, because he has overlooked assorted states which apply to the GATT/WTO and erroneously classified them as nonparticipants while in fact they have a topographic point in the organisation. In this paper, the writers ab initio make an attempt to place the full rank of GATT/WTO. Actually, besides those formal members of the GATT, this paper regards three sorts of nonmember participates, say those settlements, probationary members and fact members, as valuable observations, which is different from Rose, who categorizes them as holding no rights and duties function under the GATT. Finally, after a similar empirical analysis with Rose, they show that the WTO/GATT rank so makes parts to international trade growing.
Besides Rose ‘s research mentioned above, Liu ( 2009 ) points out two issues in his literature, sing the sample choice prejudice and the gravitation theoretical account specification, utilizing a big bilateral dataset and fixed-effects Possion arrested development method. As a consequence, the GATT/WTO is proved to be really effectual in advancing international trade both in intensive border and extended border, which addresses the mystifier raised by Rose ( 2004 ) to some extent. To specify the extended border and intensive border in Liu ‘s paper, he considered them as the deepness and comprehensiveness of an economic measure, or intensive boundary line every bit good as generalized boundary line in trade. In general, the extended border refers to the gap of new markets and exports of new merchandises, while the intensive border corresponds to the addition of the original trade in the same market. That is to state, the rank of the GATT/WTO non merely promotes the exports of a merchandise in the international market, but besides boosts the trade in domestically market.
Additionally, Subramanian and Wei ( 2007 ) stress that the WTO has a great impact on international trade, but unevenly. In their paper, they try to do rapprochement between Rose ‘s findings and the widely recognized belief that the WTO increases bilateral trade. Indeed, assorted bookmans consider that there exist dissymmetries in the international trade. However, the grounds for all of those dissymmetries are non explained. So Subramanian and Wei test three dissymmetries in their research. First, do the rich states benefit more than developing states in mutual trade dialogues? Second, if both of the trade spouses undertake liberalisation, is the bilateral trade greater than when lone one of them did? Last, without liberalisation in a state, would it non see an addition in trade? With the empirical consequence from their refined gravitation theoretical account, all these three inquiries are quite consistent with their anticipations and the GATT/WTO promotes trade significantly for advanced states but non for developing states. In fact, on one manus, Wei refutes Rose ‘s decision, on the other manus, this paper provides some supports to the trade theory for the WTO.
Furthermore, Theo ( 2008 ) integrated Rose, Tomz and Wei ‘s methods into a comprehensive attack, which made the unobservable variables bias minimized and eventually gained a consequence bespeaking that the WTO has no important relation with the international trade but the discriminatory trade understandings ( PTA ) create strong trade effects. Despite a strong consequence, it is unevenly. To be specific, PTA is a kind of trade understanding that the members of a incorporate organisation provide a particular duty penchant to portion of or the whole trade goods for its other spouses by contracts. He concluded that if a state has a powerful ability to dicker for duty decrease before accession into the WTO, it could be experienced a more positive and important WTO trade effects when does a bilateral trade.
Besides, Rose ( 2000 ) set off a new moving ridge of research about whether a currency brotherhood could likely increase trade. Rose and Glick ( 2004 ) give the reply to this inquiry utilizing a panel information covering 217countries from 1948 to 1997. Finally they find that a brace of states which joined a currency brotherhood would about duplicate its bilateral trade. Baldwin and Di ( 2006 ) in their paper trial this relationship with trade and supply a step of the size of the common currency consequence. They employ a really big disaggregated trade database, for 20 states in their survey, happening that the euro had a positive impact on trade. Actually, the sentiment that utilizing a incorporate currency can increase the volume of trade is besides studied by many experts.
In footings of analyzing the impact of WTO and regional trade understanding ( RTA ) on China ‘s trade, Chinese bookmans besides conduct a assortment researches about the gravitation theoretical account. Cao ( 2007 ) made an empirical analysis about the trade volume in China with the gravitation theoretical account and found that entry into a regional trade understanding ( RTA ) could hold a great impact on bilateral trade. In his survey, he made an empirical analysis about the trade flows between China and its 34 largest trade spouses in 2005. His consequence indicated that the Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) , distance and ASEAN rank are the chief factors that affect China ‘s external trade. Besides, he besides estimated China ‘s trade potency and obtained a state list which are great export market for China, such as India, Turkey, Denmark, France, Poland, Brazil and Mexico, etc. of class, this consequence is based on the analysis of Gravity theoretical account he used.
3. The World Trade Organization ( WTO ) and China
3.1 The Role of World Trade Organization
The WTO/GATT has attracted 155 members fall ining it since in 1995 and no 1 has issue during the past old ages. The WTO is responsible for oversing and pull offing trade policies and ordinances of its rank on a regular basis to guarantee them justifiable. Subsequently, in order to accomplish the declared aims of the understandings and protocols, the WTO has the power to take active and effectual steps to form the execution of trade understandings and agreements under its legal power. Additionally, the WTO has the duty to organize with the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) , the World Bank and other international organisations and establishments to vouch the consistence and coherence of the planetary economic decision-making. Furthermore, when there exist differences and struggles between member provinces, the WTO is responsible for deciding them. Finally, it holds negociating forum for its members to turn to the personal businesss of understandings and protocols and provides necessary proficient aid to developing states to assist their development. What ‘s more, there are many articles and protocols carried out to vouch a normal trade system runing. Countries entry into the WTO can use these cardinal rights to supply protection for their ain international trade. The writer summarizes six rules of the WTO, they are reciprocality, transparence, market entree, just competition and non-discrimination rules. Here, the transparence rule in this paper means that all the WTO members should let go of their preparation and execution of trade steps every bit good as their corresponding alterations whenever. The intent of this rule, in my sentiment, is to supply symmetricalness information when a pair state does the bilateral trade. This, to some extent, can cut down trade fractions since both of them can manage the new policies and alterations implemented in their spouse state and so do an appropriate accommodation for them. As for the market entree rule, it requires all the WTO members open their markets to accomplish maximal trade liberalisation, which chiefly contains decrease of duty protection and remotion of quantitative limitations. In fact, these six rules influence each other and advance the international trade.
China entered into the WTO in 2001, but before its accession, it experienced a five-year observation period. Based on what have been discussed before, we can anticipate that accession into the WTO will be contributing to the development of a state ‘s external trade, particularly for developing states. Since China is the largest development states, its accession to the WTO is bound to do a great impact on the international trade. China has accounted for 1/5 of the universe ‘s population which is a great market for the whole universe. By 2011, the entire economic end product and export value were ranked the 2nd topographic point merely after America. Besides, the state ‘s foreign exchange militias in December 2010 were 2.847338 trillion dollars, which has increased 448.1 billion than the old twelvemonth. Since China ‘s accession into the WTO, it is ranked first in pulling foreign investing for the past 10 old ages among developing states, with 90 per centum portion of its entire foreign trade arising from the WTO members. Along with China ‘s development, ongoing proliferation of transnational companies settles down in China during the past 10 old ages. These companies introduce new direction impression to Chinese society and take advantage of inexpensive labour in China, so that they make their merchandises or services more competitory than those produced domestically. All these turn out that the WTO brings chances for China to develop its economic system and unfastened market. However, the consequences of Rose ( 2004 ) were that the WTO/GATT has small relation with bilateral trade, therefore could China ‘s accession to the WTO aid better trade? If yes, what factors will impact China ‘s international trade with other states? By and large talking, to analyze the many-sided trade, the gravitation equation is a classical theoretical account used by many bookmans to do an analysis.
3.1 The Regional Trade Agreement ( RTAi?‰
Ongoing proliferation of regional trade understandings prove that the international trade among closely states boosted during the past 20 old ages. One chief ground is that the states in the same RTA are geographically near with each other, such as the three largest RTAs, the European Union ( EU ) , the North American Free Trade Agreement ( NAFTA ) and the Association of Southeast Asiatic Nations ( ASEAN ) . Since provinces in these three RTAs, either they portion the same boundary line or are closely to each other, which, to some extent, greatly cut down the costs of transit every bit good as avoid hazards during trading. Risk here chiefly means the natural conditions altering, such as storm or tsunami in the ocean. Besides, in the European Union market, 17 of its members portion the same currency which can besides lend to a decrease in dealing cost since the same currency will non be affected by exchange rate fluctuations. Furthermore, within the NAFTA, the USA, Canada and Mexico enjoy a zero internal duty which will greatly better trade among them. Besides, most states of ASEAN are developing states, so that the understanding in this RTA takes the existent state of affairss of these states better into history. Therefore, establishing on all those discernible benefits we can presume that RTA is a positive variable in the gravitation theoretical account to gauge bilateral trade between spouses. In the empirical analysis, we can hold a clear decision sing it.
3.1.1 The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area ( CAFTA )
CAFTA is a free trade zone including China and the 10 ASEAN states. It is once established in January 1, 2010 but before in 2003, China and ASEAN members began to cut down the duty. During the past 10 old ages, harmonizing to the model of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Tariff Reduction Plan, all merchandises with MFN duty rates higher than 15 % was diminution to 10 % in 2004, and 5 % in 2005, eventually 0 % in 2006. For those MFN duty rates from the scope of 5 % to 15 % , they were dropped to 5 % in 2004 and 0 % in 2005. And those MFN duty rate less than 5 % merchandises were decreased to 0 % in 2004. As the largest FTA of developing states in the universe, after the completion of this FTA, trade in this country could account for over 13 per centum of the universe trade. Therefore, what grounds lead to the formation of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area? There are chiefly two grounds, one is the demand for the development of economic globalisation and regional economic integrating, the other is the demand of closely relation between China and ASEAN. As regional economic integrating has developed quickly and like a storm spreads over the universe, many members of the WTO established free trade dealingss with other states. Due to China and ASEAN members tend to be developing states, whose economic power is limited, its economic growing depends greatly on external markets. Therefore, if there are any great alterations in the planetary market, it would hold a important impact on these economic systems. Then the outgrowth of China-ASEAN is the response to forestall the negative impact of economic globalisation and header with the aggressively development of regional economic integrating.
4. Datas
Many writers employed a gravitation theoretical account to measure how factors such as existent gross domestic merchandise ( GDP ) , population, GDP per capita, distance, linguistic communication, land boundary line, country of a state, the Generalized System of Preference ( GSP ) , whether the state spouses are rank of the WTO/GATT, or RTA would impact the trade. All these variables supra would be contained in the portion of methodological analysis in this paper. The formal rank informations for the WTO/GATT or regional trade understanding ( RTA ) are from the WTO website statistic database. As for the information of GDP, they are from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) , the World Bank, and the Oxford Economics database by changeless monetary value US dollars in 2005. GDP per capita is from the World Bank ‘s Statistic and the information of a state ‘s exports and imports are from the WTO statistic database and measured by US dollars with changeless monetary values and exchange rate in 2005, adjusted quarterly. Actually, all of the frequence in this paper is quarterly informations. Besides, the country of a state, land boundary line, common faiths, common linguistic communications, are from the CIA World Fact-book. To cipher the great circle distances, we normally measure the longitude and latitude of the capital or “ economic centre ” of each economic system, which comes from the CEPII web site. The Generalized System of Preference ( GSP ) is an of import variable which has been studied by many experts who believe it can promote trade between spouses, therefore I would besides add it in my theoretical account. Since GSP is defined as a one-sided trade grants giving by industrialised states to developing states, the silent person in this paper equals to one if the trade spouse provides GSP to China, otherwise nothing. The GSP information is from United Nations: Generalized System of Preferences List of Beneficiaries ( 2011 ) . For the Baltic Exchange Dry Index ( BDI ) , which origins from the Baltic Exchange, the informations used in this paper started from the first one-fourth in1990 and terminal in the 4th one-fourth in 2011. BDI is published daily by the Baltic Exchange in London, which is non merely an of import footing for monetary value tendency of China Ocean Shipping Company ‘s dry majority transporting stock, but besides an index refers to the non-ferrous metals, coal and other primary manufactured trade goods ‘ stock monetary value motions. In fact, the cargo monetary value degree will impact the ups and downs of the index, therefore if the BDI is go uping, it means that the cargo in transportation is besides up. Furthermore, the turning cargo reflects an increasing in lading ship. Consequently the increasing demand for ships proves a comfortable international trade. Therefore, the higher BDI could reflect prosperity of the transportation market, which is besides a contemplation of international trade. As a consequence, this paper categorizes the BDI as a variable in the equation to gauge whether it is a factor that affect China ‘s international trade. The frequence for the BDI in this paper is quarterly and valued by US dollars. In this paper, the chiefly selected economic systems are those who have more foreign trade with China, such as Russian, the United States, Canada, Japan, South Korean, the Great Britain, France, German, Brazil, Australia, China Hongkong, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, India, Singapore and Chinese Taipei, which these states above have accounted for more than 75 % of the entire trade of China harmonizing to the Chinese Statistical Yearbook ( CSY ) 2011. The trade flow estimated in the gravitation theoretical account is defined as the exports plus imports of China ‘s bilateral trade with its spouses and is the existent value. All the informations began from the first one-fourth in 1990 to the last one-fourth in 2011.
5. Methods
5.1 The Gravity Model
At foremost, the survey of the gravitation theoretical account is non a tax write-off from assorted trade theories but based on intuitive judgements of the realistic dealingss. That is to state, the empirical survey comes earlier theoretical research. The gravitation theoretical account has been widely used in the survey of international trade since the past 50 old ages. The first gravitation theoretical account applied to the field of international trade was proposed by the first economic Nobel laureate Jan Tinbergen ( 1962 ) , who predicted that bilateral trade flows between two states is a map related to the economic size and distance between two states. Using this theoretical account, Tinbergen established that the one-way trade flows between the two economic systems is relative to their several economic graduated table, and reciprocally relative to their distance. Originally, it is specified as a log-linear arrested development equation and many variables are augmented to the basic theoretical account to prove whether they will impact the trade between two states.
The gravitation theoretical account is a widely used theoretical account in analysing bilateral trade flow since the sixtiess. To exemplify the dissymmetries in trade flows composed by a figure of states, Tinbergen ( 1962 ) set up a trade gravitation theoretical account. It evolves from Newton ‘s Theory of Gravitation, sing that the volume of trade between two states is relative to their economic graduated table and negatively relative to their distances. The basic equation is shown as below:
( 1 )
Where Xij is state I ‘s existent trade flow with state J, and peers imports plus exports. A is a coefficient. Yi is the GDP of state I and Yj is the GDP of state j. YiYj is the GDP merchandise of the two states. Dij is the distance between the two states, normally estimated by the distance of the two states ‘ capital or economic centre. Since the theoretical account is non-linear, we can take the natural logarithm from both sides of the equation at the same clip to acquire the additive one:
( 2 )
In equation ( 2 ) , lnXij, ln ( YiYj ) , lnDij are the natural logarithm of Xij, YiYj and Dij severally. are regression coefficients to be estimated. is the standard mistake.
By and large talking, GDP reflects the economic graduated table of a state. Therefore, there expected to be a inclination that the higher GDP of state I and J, the larger trade flow from state I to state J. That is to state, the bilateral trade between state I and J has a positively relationship with their GDP. Since this paper is to analyze whether entry into the WTO/GATT or RTA will increase China ‘s international trade, besides those traditional variables which have been studied by many bookmans and experts earlier, this paper will presume a new variable, the marine fiscal derivations Baltic Exchange Dry Index ( BDI ) , to prove whether it has any relation with trade between trade spouses.
BDI is an of import index to analyze the future public presentation and investing value of transporting stocks, every bit good as one of the taking indexs of international trade. Since the BDI is calculated as a consequence of the topographic point cargo which weighted by three chief ship types worldwide which I have mentioned above, hence, the alteration of the cargo monetary value would do BDI fluctuated. If the coefficient of BDI is positive, it could intend that a lifting cargo is a contemplation of an increasing international trade. In fact, if the cargo keeps increasing, it should intend that the demand for the ship is being increased. Therefore, one ground to explicate it is that the international trade is turning.
Actually, Rose ( 2004 ) considered that the Generalized System of Preferences ( GSP ) had a strong impact on bilateral trade, therefore the GSP should hold been contained in the theoretical account to gauge its influence in trade. Actually, this thought was proposed in the early 1960s by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. In 1971, the GATT adopted this thought and allowed this sort of penchant to be given to those least underdeveloped states. The rule for this thought is to supply a generalised and non-discriminated penchant for one state ‘s all contracted spouses. In this paper, GSP would be regarded as a silent person variable added into the theoretical account. Therefore, if a state provides GSP to China, it would be one, otherwise, nothing.
In fact, the gravitation theoretical account besides can obtain the RTA as a variable to analyse bilateral trade. Jiang ( 2003 ) made a survey about the ASEAN consequence of the gravitation theoretical account. From his consequence, when the GDP of the state, belongs to ASEAN, increased by 1 % , its import would lift by 1.102 % , while when the population of the state increased by 1 % , its export would decreased by 0.301 % . As for the distance increasing 1 % , the export from a state to another state would dropped by 1.068 % . This consequence can be applied to about states of the ASEAN. That is to state, GDP every bit good as distance are the mainly factors which have a great impact on bilateral trade. By the manner, RTA is besides a silent person variable in this paper.
Besides, harmonizing to the definition given by the Wikipedia, “ GDP per capita is calculated by taking a step of all beginnings of income in the sum, such as GDP, and spliting it by the entire population ” , therefore this paper defines GDP per capita about as, expressed in the equation as Pgdpi. Then the theoretical account used in this paper can be rewrite as:
( 3 )
In equation ( 3 ) , besides the original variables, this paper besides adds some elements which the writer considers may impact the trade. Such as Bothinijt is a dummy variable bing to one if both of the state spouses are members of the WTO in twelvemonth T ; otherwise, nothing. Since the states picked out to analyze the bilateral trade with China including Russia, who is still non a formal member of the WTO, therefore this paper creates a variable Oneinijt, a dummy peers one if merely one of the state spouses is a member of the WTO ; RTAijt, a dummy peers to one if both of the two states belong to the same regional trade understanding ; Area is the geographic country of a state, here is the country of China ‘s trade spouses ; Langij means the two counties portion a common linguistic communication ; Borderij equals one if the two states portion the same boundary line ; Religij means whether the two states have the same faith ; Pgdpi indicates the GDP per capita in state I, so does Pgdpj.
5.2 The Ordinary Least Square Regression ( OLS ) and Panel Data
Since the paper has to gauge the parametric quantities from to, OLS appraisal must be used. However, most of the time-series information has the job of collinearity and heterogeneousness, so it must be adjusted to do time-series stable. Uniting time-series with cross-section informations can cut down the collinearity and leads to a greater efficiency. Therefore, a panel information will be established in this paper. Using the pooled OLS can gauge the equation. If the parametric quantity of a variable is important and positive, it has a positive relation with the trade, and frailty versa.
Empirical Consequences
Now we will concentrate on the empirical analysis. This paper selects 16 states and country which have comparative large trade volume with China mainland than the else states to set up a panel information. They are Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, German, China Hongkong, Indonesia, India, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Russia, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, Britain and America. This is ranked harmonizing to China ‘s Statistic Yearbook in 2011, which these states above have accounted for more than 75 % of the entire trade of China. Since all of the 16 states except Russia are members of the WTO/GATT, therefore I can do a comparing about the trade alteration before and after accession into this organisation for 10 old ages. Of class, though the WTO was established in 1995, its predecessor GATT has already existed since in 1947. So I regard the rank of the WTO and the GATT as the same, which for the period from 1990 to 1995, the silent person of the WTO is one if a state is a member of the GATT. Additionally, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand and China join the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area ( CAFTA ) , which the free trade understanding was signed in 2003, hence I add a dummy variable RTA in the gravitation equation to gauge whether it would impact the bilateral trade among CAFTA. All informations in this paper is picked up from 1990 to 2011, quarterly. The equation will be regressed with a pooled Ordinary Least Squares ( OLS ) . Then table 1 below would incorporate the nucleus consequences used to explicate whether each variable in my theoretical account has a important relation with China ‘s bilateral trade or non. If the coefficient of a variable is positive, it is positively related with the trade.
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Mistake
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
-9.516239
0.951119
-10.00531
0.0000
BORDER?
0.667895
0.054302
12.29961
0.0000
BOTHIN?
0.254428
0.098225
2.590272
0.0097
ONEIN?
0.188267
0.081332
2.314792
0.0208
RTA?
0.172504
0.059294
2.909313
0.0037
GSP?
0.565493
0.041811
13.52483
0.0000
LANG?
1.103387
0.102022
10.81523
0.0000
RELIG?
-0.336186
0.056962
-5.901916
0.0000
BDI?
0.152377
0.031643
4.815539
0.0000
DISTANCE?
-0.546481
0.029127
-18.76177
0.0000
AREA?
0.015391
0.012832
1.199445
0.2305
GDP?
0.342173
0.016347
20.93187
0.0000
PGDP?
0.456932
0.031919
14.31541
0.0000
GDP_CHN?
0.979711
0.116449
8.413192
0.0000
PGDP_CHN?
0.583177
0.114939
5.073813
0.0000
R2= 0.852530 F-statistics= 653.7035
Table 1 Pooled OLS Analysis
Table 1 show that the theoretical account has a good goodness of tantrum with the sample informations since R square is high. We know that the F-statistic is to gauge the significance of all variables to the dependant variable, therefore from the consequence in table 1, it could be expected that all variables in this theoretical account has a important consequence to China ‘s external trade with other states. However, F-statistic can non demo the precisely significance of each variable to the whole theoretical account, therefore we need to analyse the t-values of variables one by one to see whether all variables in the theoretical account is important or non.
In general, GSP is given by those developed states to developing states via supplying discriminatory duty-free entry for most of trade merchandises when import from their spouses. Seen from the tabular array above, we can place that GSP is a important variable which means it encourages bilateral trade between China and its spouses. In fact, as the GSP is by and large given by developed states to developing states, and the most of import article in GSP is the duty decrease, therefore it is apparent that basking GSP from those advanced states do profit China ‘s trade. Although the developing states seem to profit more from the GSP, those states supplying it besides are reciprocated. Taking the USA as an illustration, ===owing to the state transporting out of the GSP plan, non merely transnational trade is increased by 18.5 billion dollars in 2011, but besides more than 80,000 businesss which are relevant with the GSP policy were created since 2005. China began to bask the GSP regulation from America since 1979 and it ought to be said that the execution of the GSP plays a really important function in spread outing Chinese export to the USA and speed uping the procedure of China ‘s industrialisation.
As for the rank of the WTO/GATT on trade flow influence, there exists singular divergency in academe. Rose ( 2004 ) proposed it has non much relation with the international trade whike some other experts consider that the rank do increase bilateral trade. Xuepeng Liu ‘s ( 2009 ) empirical analysis indicates that if both of the trade spouses are members of the WTO, coefficient of this variable is important, positive but little. The same thing is true for my consequence. Table 1 indicates that if both of the spouse states belong to the WTO, it would be a positive variable to increase the bilateral trade. From the position of China ‘s existent state of affairs, before accession to the WTO, China ‘s foreign trade merely occupied 4 % of the planetary trade whereas after entry to the WTO, this proportion increased to 10 % . That is to state, the rank of WTO truly is a positive component that can better China ‘s trade. However, if merely one of the two states has the rank of the WTO, the coefficient is besides positive. Why? It may be attributed to the state which although is non a member of the GATT/WTO, it belongs to “ Three classs of nonmember participants ” ( Tomz, et.al 2007 ) , which can besides bask the rights given by the GATT/WTO. In fact, assorted states tend to widen their MFN to the other states, no affair they are members of the WTO or non. In this instance, the positive coefficient of Onein can be explained.
As for the variable of distance, theoretically, the longer the distance between two trade spouses, the less the trade is. Of class the coefficient of distance in this paper is -0.546481, which is reversely relative with the trade in my theoretical account. This result has been consistent with assorted bookmans. Actually, this consequence could be attributed to the undermentioned grounds. First, if two states apart each other with a long distance, there could be a great uncertainness in the procedure of trade. Taking the universe ‘s largest container transportation companies, which is called the Maersk Line, as an illustration, when the ship going from China to America, it would take 15 yearss to get the USA Long Beach and 19 yearss to Oakland. Therefore, there could be some natural threaten such as twister, tsunami or storm during the transporting procedure. Furthermore, the long distance besides requires more transit cost. Indeed, the higher the cost, the less the trade. Besides, there might be civilization and usage difference for two far off states. In fact, with different civilization, clients may hold different penchant on importing or exporting merchandises. For illustration, there is a great difference in nutrient between the West and East, therefore China ‘s rice exports to the other states must be a distribution of East more while West lupus erythematosus.
Additionally, seen from the consequence of table 1, RTA is proved to be a positive and important variable in the gravitation theoretical account in increasing China ‘s external trade. In this specification, the trade among a geographically close RTA member normally is higher than with other. Besides the closely distance factor, a FTA besides focus on cut downing barriers between trade spouses and easing the trade among provinces. Actually, any FTA follows the twenty-fourth Article of GATT, which emphasize that any RTA should see speed uping trade among its members as the basic rule. Taking China-ASEAN as an illustration, since the China-ASEAN FTA Early Harvest Scheme was carried out, it has leaded to the duty of about 600 agribusiness merchandises start to be reduced. Indeed, there are other elements in an FTA which would speed up the trade, such as a common boundary line or linguistic communication. However, the trade in boundary line country is in fact little, likely because of the state security considerations.
Actually, this paper aims to analyze whether the WTO or RTA increase China ‘s many-sided trade, therefore pulling on the traditional gravitation theoretical account, country is added to the equation to gauge its consequence to bilateral trade. However, since the survey is about all of the 16 states ‘ trade with China, China ‘s country is omitted in the equation because it remains the same all the clip. This paper merely takes the country of China ‘s trade spouses into history and wants to gauge whether the party state ‘s country would impact the bilateral trade. The consequence in tabular array 1 shows that trade spouse ‘s country is relative with China ‘s trade since its coefficient is positive, which means that a bigger state would hold a larger bilateral trade with China. However, this variable has 23.05 % chance to do mistakes. Therefore, it should be omitted in the theoretical account. Table 2 would expose the consequence after the country is omitted.
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Mistake
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
-9.692068
0.939894
-10.31187
0.0000
BORDER?
0.676145
0.053873
12.55078
0.0000
BOTHIN?
0.201253
0.087664
2.295741
0.0218
ONEIN?
0.147738
0.073992
1.996677
0.0460
RTA?
0.185468
0.058309
3.180767
0.0015
GSP?
0.569839
0.041660
13.67822
0.0000
LANG?
1.040471
0.087517
11.88877
0.0000
RELIG?
-0.339668
0.056897
-5.969915
0.0000
BDI?
0.154898
0.031578
4.905323
0.0000
DISTANCE?
-0.526243
0.023746
-22.16111
0.0000
GDP?
0.348374
0.015510
22.46060
0.0000
PGDP?
0.444622
0.030229
14.70868
0.0000
GDP_CHN?
0.989882
0.116157
8.521897
0.0000
PGDP_CHN?
0.582182
0.114953
5.064533
0.0000
R2=0.868731 F-Statistic=748.3401
Table 2 Pooled OLS Analysis
After the country is omitted from the equation, the theoretical account has a better goodness of tantrum since the R square and F-statistic are both hypertrophied. However, although the country may hold insignificance consequence in this theoretical account, we could non place it as a useless variable in other relevant trade theory. Japan is smaller than the USA, but it is the largest trade spouse of China. This could be explained by the short distance between Japan and China. Besides, with the improving of GDP per capita in China, the demand for Japan ‘s digital merchandises every bit good as cars is enlarged, which would besides advance Japan ‘s exports to China. From the position of Japan, it transfers some general industries such as the finished or semi-finished production and parts treating to China. Then it imports those merchandises back to Japan by profiting from China ‘s cheap-labor. However, compared with China ‘s other trade spouse except Japan, the trade flow with America is far greater than other states. Therefore, the country is likely a factor impacting the bilateral trade.
In this theoretical account, the coefficient of GDP is ever positive both in tabular array 1 and table 2, which is 0.979711 and 0.989882 severally. Thus the GDP turns out to be a great factor in impacting China ‘s trade with the outside universe. The same thing is true for the GDP per capita both between China and its trade spouses. Basically, this is approved in about researches.
It is deserving adverting that the BDI is a positive and important variable in the gravitation theoretical account. No affair what changes makes in the equation, the BDI ever shows a positive relation with the dependant variable, the trade. Thus it is meaningful to add it in the equation to analyze its relation with China ‘s international trade. The consequence proves that along with the cargo lifting, there must be comfortable in ocean transit, therefore the increasing demand for transportation is an prototype of international trade development. Indeed, surveies sing marine fiscal derived functions have a really of import significance for China ‘s transportation companies and fiscal establishments, which they could take advantage of marine information to avoid transportation hazard and entree to international cargo market. Since in China, the transportation is still a failing that people know really small about this sphere.
Decision
From China made the first proposal in the General Agreement on duties and Trade ( GATT ) , in which it required to retrieve the party position application in 1986 to the terminal of 2001, it has experienced 15years of backbreaking dialogue procedure for China to go member of the WTO. In the past 11 old ages, non merely China gets a great economic growing but besides injects a strong verve for the universe economic system. Harmonizing to the statistic, China ‘s mean one-year GDP growing rate reaches 10.5 per centum per twelvemonth and the occupants ‘ income has increased from 800 dollars in 2001 to 3,300 dollars in 2011. Seen from this great advancement, the WTO truly creates a broader phase for China to seek for a good development. Since Rose questioned the function of the WTO in advancing the international trade in 2004, there have been assorted researches about this subject in academe. This paper employed the gravitation theoretical account to do an analysis on his inquiry and the consequence is proved that accession into the WTO do increase China ‘s bilateral trade. Besides, the BDI as a marine fiscal derived function added in the theoretical account besides turns to be a positive and important factor in impacting China ‘s international trade. Making a comparing before 2001 and now, China has alter the function from a conservative bystander to an active participant in the planetary economic system. China ‘s development can non divide from the WTO every bit good as the WTO need China to go one portion of it. Globalization is an inevitable tendency and privacy is decidedly non a wise move. China ‘s accession to the WTO and constitution of China-ASEAN has no uncertainty creates a great chance for China to incorporate into the whole universe.
